AL Masry vs Ghazl El Mehalla

<div> <h2>Al Masry vs Ghazl El Mehalla: Tactical Arm-wrestle Expected in Suez</h2> <p>Al Masry host Ghazl El Mehalla at the New Suez Stadium on September 17, with the Port Said club sitting 2nd and Ghazl hovering mid-table after six rounds. It’s early days, but the clash pits one of the league’s most vibrant home attacks against the most resilient back line so far.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>The Green Eagles have started brightly (11 points), posting 3.00 goals per game at home, including wins over Al Ittihad (3-1) and Kahraba Ismaili (4-0), and a 2-2 draw with Pyramids. The 0-3 loss away to Zamalek last week was a reality check, but their overall home trend is strong.</p> <p>Ghazl El Mehalla remain unbeaten (W1 D5), defined by no-frills, defensive solidity: just one goal conceded across six games, three away clean sheets, and a reputation for slow, low-event matches. Their ledger features four 0-0 draws, a 3-0 win at Ismaily, and a 1-1 at home to Arab Contractor.</p> <h3>What the Numbers Say</h3> <ul> <li>Al Masry home splits: 2.33 PPG, 3.00 GF/G, 1.00 GA/G; Over 2.5 at home: 100% (sample size 3).</li> <li>Ghazl away splits: 1.67 PPG, 1.00 GF/G, 0.00 GA/G; 100% away clean sheets (3/3) and away BTTS: 0%.</li> <li>Overall Ghazl totals: 0.83 total goals per game; Over 2.5 in only 17% of fixtures.</li> <li>Draw propensity: 83% of Ghazl matches have ended level (5/6).</li> </ul> <p>These profiles collide: Al Masry’s home games have been open, but Ghazl’s defensive block and Amer Amer’s shot-stopping (19 saves, 1 goal conceded) have suppressed chance quality and scorelines throughout August and September.</p> <h3>Key Matchups and Players</h3> <p>For Al Masry, Algerian midfielder Abderrahim Deghmoum (3 goals) drives the half-spaces, while Mounder Temine (2) and super-sub Omar El Saeey (2 in just 102 minutes) add punch. The back line—Baher El Mohamady and Mohamed Hashem—will be tasked with boxing out Mohamed “Grendo” Abdel Latif and the clever Rached Arfaoui (both with a goal each). Keeper Essam Tharwat has five league appearances; despite conceding seven overall, Masry’s home GA is just 1.00.</p> <p>Ghazl’s platform is the defense: Ahmed Shousha (7.25 avg rating) and Ahmed El Aash (7.07) anchor a disciplined unit in front of veteran goalkeeper Amer Amer (7.17). Mory Touré screens effectively in midfield, while Grendo’s pressing and Arfaoui’s ball-carrying provide the outlet for counters. The concern remains end-product: four scoreless games in six and 0.67 GF/G overall.</p> <h3>Tactical Expectations</h3> <p>Expect Al Masry to control territory and possession, with Ghazl organized in a mid-to-low block aiming to compress central spaces. With both clubs fresh (four days since last match) and no major injury news reported, the opening phase should be cagey. If Masry break through, it’s likelier after halftime once Ghazl’s block fatigues. However, given Ghazl’s away clean-sheet streak, Al Masry may have to rely on set pieces or a moment from Deghmoum/Temine to unlock the visitors.</p> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>Markets lean towards a home win (1.57) and a low total (Under 2.5 at 1.60). The sharper values are on the nuanced totals: Asian Under 2.25 at 1.78 (half-win at exactly two) and Asian Under 2.0 at 2.08 (push at two). Given Ghazl’s underlying defensive outperformance and their 0.83 total goals profile, those lines better capture the likely tempo and chance volume.</p> <p>For correct scores, 1-0 (4.50) and 2-0 (5.50) are the most logical Masry-win scripts. If you prefer team totals, “Ghazl Under 0.5” at 1.85 is fairly priced versus “Masry Win to Nil” (2.28), offering 0-0 draw cover.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Al Masry should edge it, but Ghazl’s compactness and keeper form point to small margins. The matchup reads as a territorial siege rather than a shootout.</p> <ul> <li>Primary angle: Asian Under 2.25 goals (1.78).</li> <li>Supporting: BTTS No (1.57) and Ghazl Under 0.5 (1.85).</li> <li>Lean: Al Masry to win (1.57); sprinkle on 1-0 (4.50).</li> </ul> <p>In short: hosts by a goal in a low-scoring contest.</p> </div>