Deportivo Pereira vs Llaneros
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<html> <head> <title>Deportivo Pereira vs Llaneros – Data-Led Betting Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Deportivo Pereira vs Llaneros: Form, Edges and Prices</h2> <p>Deportivo Pereira welcome Llaneros to Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas on 14 September with contrasting venue profiles in play: Pereira are robust at home, while Llaneros have hit turbulence on their travels after a fast start. With eight days’ rest since each side’s last outing, both should arrive fresh for what projects as a cagey but winnable home assignment for Pereira.</p> <h3>1) Venue-Specific Performance</h3> <p>Pereira’s home split is the anchor to this handicap. They average 2.00 PPG at home, spend only 6% of home minutes trailing, and score first in 60% of games at this venue. Llaneros are a respectable away side (1.40 PPG) but have lost their last two away matches (2-1 at La Equidad and 4-0 at Junior). The away equalizing and ppgWhenConcededFirst numbers are poor—0.00—so conceding first has been terminal.</p> <h3>2) Current Form and Trajectory</h3> <p>On raw trajectory, Llaneros are higher in the table (7th) and in the last-8 form table (15 points) than Pereira (11 points). However, Pereira’s last-8 trend shows a 15% bump in PPG and a defensive tightening (last-8 GA down 12%). Media sentiment notes Pereira’s pressure and a recent dip (winless in three, two straight without scoring), but the home splits remain resilient over the season sample.</p> <h3>3) Goal Timing and Flow</h3> <p>Pereira at home strike early (average first goal minute 18; strong 0–15 and 46–60 segments) and manage the second half better (home 2nd-half GF 4, GA 2). Llaneros’ away pattern includes early concessions (average minute conceded first 18) and a more open late phase (61–90 minutes split: GF 3, GA 3 overall away). This supports either a home HT/FT edge or at least a second-half nudge toward Pereira.</p> <h3>4) Situational Metrics</h3> <p>When Pereira score first, they average 3.00 PPG. Llaneros, if they concede first, average 0.00 PPG (overall and away). Pereira’s time distribution—leading 37% of home minutes and trailing only 6%—pairs with a solid lead-defending rate (60%) against a Llaneros side that equalizes just 25% of the time. That combination underpins the “Pereira & Under 4.5” angle.</p> <h3>5) Totals, BTTS, and Scorelines</h3> <p>League-wide totals trend low, and overall these two combine for just 1.90 total goals per game. Pereira’s home matches are more volatile (over 2.5 in 80% and BTTS in 80%), while Llaneros away are the opposite (BTTS 20%, clean sheets 60%). The compromise reads “Pereira win, modest total,” rather than a goalfest. Notably, Pereira’s most common home score is 2-1 (60% of home games), which aligns with our prop at 9.00.</p> <h3>6) Player Impact</h3> <p>For Pereira, wide/attacking contributions from Omar Albornoz and Adrián Estacio (13 shots, strong ball-carry) complement veteran Marco Pérez (2.62 anytime) and creator Samy Jr. Merheg (scorer vs América and Nacional; 3.60 anytime in the market). At the back, Velasco and Monroy provide experienced flanks. For Llaneros, GK Miguel Ortega (6.85 rating) plus CB Francisco Meza (team-high 7.29) underpin a stout defense; Daniel Mantilla and Julián Angulo add the transitional threat, with Andrés López the main goal outlet.</p> <h3>7) Relative to League</h3> <p>Llaneros overperform the league defensively (0.90 GA vs 1.17 average) and protect leads exceptionally (83% overall, 100% away). Pereira, however, exceed league averages at home in PPG and goals scored, and spend very little time behind at this venue—an important market anchor.</p> <h3>8) Red Flags and Contradictions</h3> <p>The biggest contradiction is BTTS: Pereira’s home BTTS is high (80%) while Llaneros’ away BTTS is low (20%). That’s why we prefer “Pereira & Under 4.5” to BTTS plays, and why we separate a small-stake correct score (2-1) as the speculative prop rather than making BTTS our core position.</p> <h3>9) Season Context and 10) News/Sentiment</h3> <p>We’re beyond the very early-season noise (10 GP), so the splits have some reliability. Media sentiment notes pressure on Pereira but also highlights their strong historical profile at home in this matchup and the need for a response. Mild, possibly damp conditions (18–22°C, chance of light rain) could favor Pereira’s territorial play and set-piece value, reinforcing a modest total outcome.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>The numbers point to a controlled home win without a blowout. The best price-adjusted anchor is Pereira to Win & Under 4.5 (1.93), with complementary angles on Pereira 2+ team goals (2.15), second-half winner Pereira (2.15), and a small dart at 2-1 correct score (9.00).</p> </body> </html>
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