Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Petrolera

<div> <h2>Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Petrolera: Data Points Tilt Markets Toward Goals</h2> <p>Estadio Departamental Libertad hosts a tricky Primera A clash as Deportivo Pasto welcome Alianza Petrolera. With both clubs relatively healthy and lineups to be confirmed about an hour before kickoff, this feels like a numbers game: Pasto’s early-home pressure against Alianza’s away frailties and strong equalizing profile.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Pasto’s recent trajectory is concerning. They’ve taken just five points from their last eight league matches, scoring only 0.63 goals per game in that span, down more than 30% from their season average. Two straight defeats and two straight without scoring underline the wobble. Alianza, meanwhile, have gained 14 points in their last eight and are unbeaten in three, buoyed by home wins and a useful goalless draw away at Envigado. They sit 8th in the overall table, while Pasto are 18th.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchups</h3> <p>Pasto’s best window is early. Their home profile shows a strong 16-30 minute spell and a 67% rate of scoring first at Libertad. That matches uncomfortably for Alianza, who concede first 67% of the time on the road and have an average first concession away as early as minute 11. The twist? Pasto’s lead-defending is poor (40% at home), and Alianza’s away equalizing rate is a robust 67%. Expect Pasto to start fast and Alianza to grow into the game with transitional danger after halftime.</p> <h3>Goal Flow: Late Action Likely</h3> <p>Both teams skew toward second-half events. Alianza see 56% of their goals for and against after the interval; Pasto concede 75% of their home goals after halftime. The 76–90 window is lively for both, amplifying draw and BTTS angles, and supporting “Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half.”</p> <h3>Key Players</h3> <p>For Pasto, the attacking axis of Facundo Boné and set-piece outlet Andrés Alarcón is crucial. Boné provides ball-carrying and chance creation, while Alarcón’s four league goals from defense make him a persistent set-play threat. On the Alianza side, recent scorers Mayer Gil and Edwin Torres have timed their contributions well; Torres netted early last time and offers vertical runs that exploit disorder. Pedro Franco and Yilson Rosales anchor a back line that has looked strong at home but is more vulnerable away, especially in transitions.</p> <h3>Weather and Conditions</h3> <p>A cool, potentially wet evening in Pasto (12–15°C, chance of rain) could slow tempo and encourage direct play. That often favors set pieces, a Pasto strength via Alarcón, and can contribute to late, scrappy chances—the data already points to second-half action.</p> <h3>Market Read</h3> <p>Books lean towards a cautious total with Under 2.5 favored, but the split profile suggests value on selective overs and BTTS. Pasto’s home matches have been tighter (33% Over 2.5), yet Alianza away games push the opposite way (67% Over 2.5) with high BTTS incidence (67%). Over 1.5 at 1.53 feels fairly priced to value; BTTS Yes at 2.10 is the standout. On the result side, Draw or Alianza at 1.50 lines up cleanly with form, resilience when conceding first, and Pasto’s poor conversion when trailing.</p> <h3>What to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>First 30 minutes: Pasto’s pressure vs Alianza’s early concessions.</li> <li>Set pieces: Pasto’s Alarcón is a persistent aerial/second-ball danger.</li> <li>Second half: Alianza’s capacity to equalize and force BTTS outcomes.</li> </ul> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a story of two halves: early Pasto threat, then Alianza clawing back. The numbers emphasize BTTS and late scoring phases. On the result side, the data slightly tilts toward Alianza avoiding defeat—form, equalizing rate, and Pasto’s struggles when conceding first back that stance.</p> <h4>Best Bets</h4> <p>BTTS Yes (2.10), Over 1.5 Goals (1.53), Draw or Alianza (1.50), Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half (2.15). Small prop sprinkle: Facundo Boné anytime at 4.50.</p> </div>