22 de Julio vs Chacaritas

<div> <h2>22 de Julio vs Chacaritas: Data Says “Home Edge, Low Margin”</h2> <p>Estadio Folke Anderson hosts a relegation-zone six-pointer on Wednesday night as 22 de Julio welcome bottom-placed Chacaritas. With humid, possibly wet conditions forecast, this promises more grit than gloss, and the numbers support a cagey affair leaning toward the home side.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Both clubs have struggled across the season, but 22 de Julio have carved out a dependable home identity. They sit mid-lower table yet boast one of the league’s better home defensive records. Chacaritas have improved in recent weeks overall—1.38 PPG in their last eight—but that uplift is heavily home-driven. Away from Pelileo, they have the league’s worst split: 0.36 PPG, 0.64 goals scored, and 2.64 conceded.</p> <h3>The Matchup: Why the Venue Matters</h3> <p>22 de Julio’s defensive numbers at home are outstanding: just four goals conceded in twelve matches (0.33 GA), 67% clean sheets, and a 100% lead-defending rate. They’re methodical and late-surging—85% of their home goals come after the break—with a penchant for 1-0 wins. Chacaritas, conversely, fail to score in 64% of their away games and have lost to nil 55% of the time. They’ve never led at half-time on their travels this season and concede early and late, often ceding match control.</p> <h3>Key Individuals</h3> <p>For the hosts, the back line—Realpe, Washington Plúas, and Harold González—has underpinned that remarkable home defensive record. Veteran Juan Carlos Paredes still offers savvy on set-pieces and transitions; he netted from the spot in July’s 3-0 H2H. Steven Ortiz, scorer that day, remains a useful second-half weapon.</p> <p>Chacaritas’ hope lies with Kevin Valencia, fresh from a hat-trick against Cumbayá. The 18-year-old Jhon Acurio provides dribbling thrust, but away shot quality drops off dramatically, and service has been inconsistent. In a game where territory may prove decisive, Valencia could be starved of chances.</p> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>22 de Julio are pragmatic: compact mid-block, few first-half risks, and a sharper gear post-interval. Expect similar here, especially with a potentially slick surface discouraging expansive build-up. Chacaritas must resist their tendency to cede the first goal (82% away) because they rarely recover (ppg when conceding first away: 0.33). If 22 de Julio score first, their 100% lead-defending rate at home makes a turnaround unlikely.</p> <h3>What the Odds Say</h3> <p>Books make 22 de Julio favorites on the 1x2 at 1.70, but the real pricing inefficiency appears in derivative markets. “Home Win to Nil” at 2.67 looks hefty given seven such results in twelve home games. “BTTS No” at 1.82 is similarly appealing, pairing 22’s 67% home clean sheets with Chacaritas’ 64% away blanks. A first-half draw at 2.20 aligns with the hosts’ slow starts (58% HT draws at home) and Chacaritas’ HT caution.</p> <h3>Likely Pattern and Score</h3> <p>Expect a tepid first half with few clean looks, then 22 de Julio increasingly on the front foot after the break. The hosts are built to nurse leads; they conceded only one second-half goal at home all season. A one-goal home victory is most consistent with the data—1-0 or 2-0—especially given weather and motivation factors.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>Everything points to a controlled 22 de Julio performance: superior venue split, elite lead protection, and opponents who struggle to fashion chances