Imbabura vs 22 de Julio

<div> <h2>Imbabura vs 22 de Julio: Data, Discipline, and the Away-Day Drag</h2> <p>The scheduled Liga Pro Serie B clash between Imbabura and 22 de Julio has been flagged as postponed in public listings. If and when it is rearranged, the metrics paint a stark picture of contrasting venue profiles: Imbabura’s discipline at home against 22 de Julio’s frailty on the road.</p> <h3>Venue Factors: Imbabura’s Ibarra Edge</h3> <p>Imbabura average 1.31 points per game at the Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra, allowing just 0.85 goals per home match with a 46% clean sheet rate. Their lead-defending rate at home is an elite 80%, a crucial piece versus an opponent whose away lead-defending is only 33% and who trail for 53% of away minutes.</p> <h3>22 de Julio’s Away Troubles</h3> <p>On the road, 22 de Julio have a 0.46 PPG, concede 2.54 per game, and fail to score 62% of the time. They have lost six straight away matches and have not scored in their last five away trips. First halves are particularly grim: they’ve trailed at the break in 77% of away matches and concede the first goal on average by the 28th minute.</p> <h3>Goal Flow and Timing</h3> <p>22 de Julio’s goals skew heavily to the second half (77% of their total), but the bigger story is their anaemic away attack (0.62 gpg) combined with an early-conceding profile. Imbabura’s home games are typically lower tempo (1.92 total goals), while the last head-to-head here finished 2-0 on August 10, echoing 22 de Julio’s common 2-0 away defeat.</p> <h3>Key Match-Ups and Individuals</h3> <p>Imbabura’s goalkeeper Patrik Mina (6.97 rating, 44 saves) anchors a defence led by Guillermo Coronel (7.24). The creativity comes from Leandro Pantoja (4 goals, 3 assists—scored in the last H2H), Danny Burbano (3+3), and Rony Caicedo (7.20). For 22 de Julio, experience lies in the back with Juan Jairo Realpe (6.99), Harold González (6.79), and Washington Plúas. Their midfield rotates veterans like Juan Paredes, but attacking production remains sparse.</p> <h3>Market Read: Where the Value Sits</h3> <p>The numbers isolate two standout angles. First, opposing a 22 de Julio goal: 62% away blanks against an opponent with a 46% home clean-sheet rate and a recent 2-0 H2H. That aligns with Both Teams to Score: No (both sides show 31% BTTS at these splits). Second, laying the handicap: Imbabura -0.75 benefits from 22 de Julio’s frequent multi-goal away defeats (four 2-0s, two 4-0s in the away score ledger).</p> <h3>Contradictions and Cautions</h3> <p>Imbabura have failed to score in 46% of home games—an undeniable red flag that caps ceiling on aggressive overs and creates variance. It also slightly tempers Home-to-lead-at-HT markets despite 22 de Julio’s fragile 1H record. Given postponement signals, also verify re-scheduling, team news, and price moves before entry; markets can re-open with adjusted lines.</p> <h3>Tactical Snapshot</h3> <p>Expect Imbabura to funnel possession through Pantoja and Burbano between lines, forcing 22 de Julio’s full-backs into deep positions. If Imbabura break the press early, the home side’s 80% lead-defending rate makes a comeback implausible for a team that averages 0.10 PPG away when conceding first.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>The data argues for a home-controlled game with limited away threat. If conversion variance doesn’t bite Imbabura, a professional 2-0 or 1-0 feels most likely.</p> <h3>Best Bets (if/when markets reopen)</h3> <ul> <li>22 de Julio Under 0.5 Team Goals (Away Team Score a Goal: No) @ 2.38</li> <li>BTTS No @ 1.91</li> <li>Imbabura -0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.92</li> <li>First Half Winner – Imbabura @ 2.25</li> <li>Correct Score 2-0 @ 7.00 (sprinkle)</li> </ul> <p><em>Note: Postponement status implies lines may be pulled; re-verify fixture confirmation and lineup context before staking.</em></p> </div>