Cumbayá vs Imbabura
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<html> <head><title>Cumbayá vs Imbabura – Serie B Betting Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Form, Context and Market Temperature</h2> <p>Cumbayá welcome Imbabura on October 9 with the market making the hosts slight favorites around 1.91. That aligns with predictive models giving the home side roughly a 55% chance to win. The community sentiment also leans toward Cumbayá, and the recent head-to-head in September ended 0-0, underscoring a competitive pairing.</p> <p>Season-long profiles, however, paint a much starker picture on the road for Imbabura: they average just 0.38 points per game away, losing 10 of 13 (77%) and conceding two per match. Meanwhile, Cumbayá at home run 1.46 PPG and come into this with three consecutive clean sheets and back-to-back victories.</p> <h3>Tactical Themes and Key Matchups</h3> <p>Cumbayá are notably front-loaded at home. A massive 73% of their home goals arrive before the interval, and they tend to strike early (average first goal at 22’). This dovetails with Imbabura’s vulnerability either side of half-time, particularly the 46–60’ window where they have conceded 7 away. Expect Cumbayá to leverage the passing control of Jonathan De la Cruz (88% accuracy, 26 key passes) and Jonathan Morocho (7.28 rating, 88% accuracy) to build territory and feed Jaime Ortíz and Jalmar Almeida in the box.</p> <p>Imbabura’s attacking axis—Leandro Pantoja (4 goals, 66 shots), Steven Gómez (3), and Danny Burbano (3)—can generate volume and fast breaks, and their away games skew high-event (3.00 total goals, 69% Over 2.5, 69% BTTS). The issue is game state: if they concede first, their away PPG drops to 0.00 and their leadDefendingRate on the road is a league-worst 12%. They often can’t convert promising openings into points.</p> <h3>Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Home vs Away: Cumbayá 1.46 PPG at home vs Imbabura 0.38 away.</li> <li>Defensive split: Cumbayá allow 1.00 GA at home; Imbabura ship 2.00 away.</li> <li>Game flow: Cumbayá score first at home 62% and defend leads 56%; Imbabura away defend leads only 12%.</li> <li>Totals: Imbabura’s away Over 2.5 hits 69% (league avg 38%).</li> </ul> <h3>Betting Angles and Price vs Probability</h3> <p>The moneyline on Cumbayá at 1.91 looks fractionally generous given the road splits for Imbabura and the hosts’ recent upturn with three straight clean sheets. For those preferring to capitalize on Cumbayá’s fast starts, the first-half markets are compelling: Home HT winner at 2.54 and Home 1H Over 0.5 goals at 1.85 both square with Cumbayá’s early scoring (HT leads in 54% of home matches, frequent 1-0 HT).</p> <p>The totals are trickier. Cumbayá home games have been lower scoring (2.15 average, 38% Over 2.5), but Imbabura’s away profile is an outlier for goals. With Over 2.5 priced at 2.03—implied probability around 49%—the price offers a small edge if Imbabura’s chaotic road pattern reappears. Alternatively, if you buy Cumbayá’s defensive momentum, the Correct Score 1-0 at 5.70 is a punchy derivative that lines up with their three-match clean sheet streak and first-half bias.</p> <h3>Team News, Rest and Intangibles</h3> <p>No major injuries or suspensions have been flagged. Both teams have had healthy rest into this midweek fixture, which should keep energy levels high. Coaching stability and minimal transfer disruption suggest familiar tactical patterns: Cumbayá to control territorial phases, Imbabura to counter aggressively but risk structural issues if they fall behind.</p> <h3>Projected Impact Players</h3> <p>For Cumbayá, De la Cruz’s distribution and set-piece quality, plus Morocho’s midfield anchoring, are central to controlling tempo. Ortíz and Almeida carry the goal threat, while Morinigo and Suárez provide steady buildup from the back. For Imbabura, Pantoja’s shooting volume remains the headline, and Gómez/Burbano add dribble-and-drive incision. Shot-stopping from Patrik Mina will be under the microscope given the concession rate away.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>The statistical foundations favor Cumbayá, particularly in this venue. Their early scoring patterns and Imbabura’s chronic away defending of leads create multiple routes to a home win. The first-half markets are the sharpest prices relative to the data, while Over 2.5 at plus-money carries a modest value kicker if Imbabura’s open-road profile persists.</p> </body> </html>
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