Deportivo Capiata vs Fernando De La Mora

<div> <h2>Deportivo Capiatá vs Fernando de la Mora: Data says home edge, goals at a premium</h2> <p>Promotion-chasing Deportivo Capiatá welcome relegation-threatened Fernando de la Mora in Division Intermedia, with the numbers emphatically pointing to a low-scoring home tilt. Form, venue splits, and situational metrics all align toward the hosts, while the visitors’ road output has been among the league’s weakest.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Capiatá sit near the summit and arrive unbeaten in eight league matches, built on a miserly defense conceding just 0.61 goals per match this season and 0.50 over the last eight. At home they average 2.00 points per game and keep a clean sheet in 56% of matches. Fernando de la Mora, by contrast, languish in the bottom tier of the table and remain winless away (0.33 PPG), averaging a meager 0.22 away goals with a daunting 78% “failed to score” rate on their travels.</p> <p>While the reverse fixture in June finished 0-0, that stalemate fits the overarching profile: low events, limited chances, and a high probability that at least one side (likely the visitors) fails to score.</p> <h3>Venue and Tactical Dynamics</h3> <p>At the Estadio of Capiatá, the home side’s first-half authority is notable. They lead at half-time in 56% of home matches and score heavily between 31-45 minutes. De la Mora, on the road, have not scored a single first-half goal all season and have been behind at the break in 56% of their away fixtures. Expect Capiatá’s compact 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 shape to control central spaces, with veteran target play from Dionicio Pérez enabling territory, while the wide players deliver incremental pressure rather than volume chances.</p> <h3>Key Match-ups</h3> <p>Alexis Verdún and Héctor Lezcano have supplied timely goals for Capiatá, including late winners in recent weeks. Their contribution sits atop a sturdy defensive spine that defends leads effectively (home lead-defending rate 71%). For De la Mora, Fernando Cáceres and Ángel Ruíz have found recent goals at home, but away they too often feed off scraps. Goalkeeper Joel Silva’s leadership is vital, though he faces repeated first-half pressure given the side’s early concessions on the road.</p> <h3>Metrics That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>FDL Mora away: 0.22 GF, 78% failed to score, 0% scored first away; time trailing 40%.</li> <li>Capiatá home: 0.67 GA, 56% clean sheets; opponent scored first only 11% of the time.</li> <li>BTTS: Capiatá home 44% vs FDL Mora away 22% → BTTS No tilt.</li> <li>Totals: Capiatá over 2.5 at home 33%; FDL Mora away over 2.5 only 22%.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>The market leans correctly to the hosts but still leaves pockets of value. “FDL Mora 0 goals” at 2.18 is standout: with approximately a 65–70% true probability (vs implied 45.9%), it’s a high-EV position considering the visitors’ 7/9 away blanks. Capiatá to win at 1.95 (implied 51.3%) also looks fair-to-positive with the visitors’ away splits. BTTS No at 1.64 is supported by both teams’ venue-specific BTTS rates. First-half Capiatá at 2.65 is a high-upside angle spurred by the stark half-time splits.</p> <h3>Predicted Pattern and Score</h3> <p>Capiatá should assert early control and protect a narrow advantage, with De la Mora’s away anemia persisting. The most probable band is a 1-0 or 2-0 home win, aligning with Capiatá’s common home scorelines and the visitor’s tendency to blank. The draw remains a risk in low-total environments, as evidenced by the recent 0-0 head-to-head, but the balance of evidence favors a home win to nil.</p> <h3>Final Word</h3> <p>With promotion ambitions sharpening, Capiatá’s disciplined defense and first-half authority meet an opponent struggling away from home. Expect low variance in chance quality, few big chances for the visitors, and a controlled home performance. Best prices focus on De la Mora failing to score, a home win, and combinations with under-goal thresholds.</p> </div>