Atlético Tembetary vs Sportivo Ameliano
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<html> <head><title>Atlético Tembetary vs Sportivo Ameliano – Betting Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Atlético Tembetary vs Sportivo Ameliano (Clausura)</h2> <p>Date: 12 September 2025 | Venue: Complejo Tembetary, Asunción</p> <h3>Context & Stakes</h3> <p>Bottom-two clash in Asunción with both sides under pressure. Tembetary sit 12th, Ameliano 11th, and each need points to steady a shaky start. Local sentiment is wary: fans expect a gritty, pragmatic contest rather than fireworks, but numbers hint at second-half action.</p> <h3>Form & Momentum</h3> <ul> <li>Tembetary are unbeaten in three, capped by a 3–0 win over Trinidense. Their last-8 PPG (+26% vs season) shows a mild upswing.</li> <li>Ameliano ended a brief unbeaten streak with a 1–0 loss at Trinidense. Their last-8 PPG is down vs season, and away form remains a major drag (0.20 PPG).</li> <li>Rest advantage: Tembetary haven’t played since Aug 29; Ameliano played Sep 8.</li> </ul> <h3>Venue Splits That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Tembetary at home: 1.2 GF / 1.2 GA per game; small improvements in performance and confidence after the Trinidense win.</li> <li>Ameliano away: 1.0 GF / 2.4 GA per game; leadDefendingRate away is 0%—they repeatedly lose control after taking leads.</li> </ul> <h3>Goal Timing: Why Late Goals Appeal</h3> <p>The second half profile is striking. Tembetary concede 83% of their home goals after the break; Ameliano concede two-thirds of their away goals in the second half and have scored just once in that period on the road. Both sides’ 76–90 numbers are “live,” indicating late drama. This pattern underpins the “2nd-half over 1.5” and “highest scoring half: 2nd” angles.</p> <h3>Attackers to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Tembetary: Pablo Charpentier has scored in multiple recent games (Olimpia, Luqueño, 2 de Mayo). E. Yegros and Gabriel Gudiño (brace vs Trinidense) add goal threat—evidence of more balanced scoring recently.</li> <li>Ameliano: Elvio Vera (brace plus a penalty vs Nacional), D. Valdez’s timely goals, and Moreira’s late equalizer at 2 de Mayo show they can create—particularly before HT—yet conserving leads is the issue.</li> </ul> <h3>Totals and BTTS Angles</h3> <ul> <li>Over 2.5 is supported by Tembetary’s 50% O2.5 overall and Ameliano’s 60% O2.5 away, with a combined environment near 3.0 goals per match.</li> <li>BTTS is fueled by Ameliano’s 80% BTTS away and Tembetary’s 60% BTTS overall. Ameliano’s 0% away clean sheets further bolster the case.</li> </ul> <h3>Side Markets: Keeping It Tight</h3> <p>Expect a close contest. Tembetary’s home losses have been narrow (three 0–1s and one 2–3), making Home +1 at attractive odds sensible insurance. The draw is a plausible outcome between struggling sides; the 1–1 correct score has occurred in both teams’ venue splits and matches the BTTS angle.</p> <h3>Odds & Value</h3> <ul> <li>2nd Half Over 1.5 (2.40): Implies ~41.7%—numbers suggest a higher true probability given second-half skew.</li> <li>BTTS Yes (2.00): Fair line looks closer to ~55–60% using Ameliano’s away BTTS profile.</li> <li>Away exact goals 1 (2.50): Occurred in 3/5 away (60%); a generous price given Tembetary’s 1.2 GA at home.</li> <li>Home +1 (1.66): Protects against narrow defeat; matches the venue pattern.</li> </ul> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>A tense first half with more risk and error after HT. Expect a goal-trading spell late. The data leans towards BTTS and a result that could easily end level—1–1 or 2–1 either way—with the second half providing the decisive swings.</p> </body> </html>
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