Persebaya Surabaya vs Pusamania Borneo

<div> <h2>Persebaya Surabaya vs Borneo FC — Leaders’ Fast Start Meets Green Force Resilience</h2> <p>Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo readies for a high-stakes Liga 1 clash as table-topping Borneo FC visit Persebaya Surabaya. The visitors have set the league pace with relentless efficiency, while Persebaya’s controlled, draw-heavy run has kept them unbeaten in six and lodged firmly mid-table with room to climb.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Borneo FC are first with 33 points from 13 matches, boasting an 11-0-2 record and the division’s best defensive record (0.62 GA per game). Despite dropping their last two (0-1 vs Bali United at home; 1-3 at Persib), the broader trend remains dominant — scoring first in 92% of matches and defending leads at a league-best 92%.</p> <p>Persebaya sit ninth (18 points), defined by control and game-state management — six draws in 13 and four straight stalemates recently. At Gelora Bung Tomo their numbers open up: 1.67 PPG, 3.00 total goals per game, and both teams scoring in 67% of home dates.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Borneo excel at imposing game state early. Away from home they’ve struck first in every match, with an average first goal at minute 17, and led at halftime in 80% of trips. Their profile: compress the middle third, break quickly through direct runners, and set-piece power (notably central defenders and forwards attacking diagonals). When in front, they squeeze counters while defending the box with structure.</p> <p>Persebaya’s strengths surface later. The Green Force post 67% of their goals in the second half, with a pronounced 76-90 minute punch (5 GF). They also equalize well (57% overall), a marker of resilience, substitutions that add energy, and an atmosphere that can tilt momentum at GBT. However, they’ve allowed the opponent to score first in two-thirds of home matches — a dangerous habit against the league leaders.</p> <h3>Key Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Borneo away: 100% scored first; away time leading 70%.</li> <li>Persebaya home: opponents scored first 67%.</li> <li>Second-half surge: Persebaya 67% GF in 2H; Borneo 64% GF, 88% GA in 2H.</li> <li>Totals: Persebaya home TPG 3.00; Borneo away TPG 3.00.</li> </ul> <h3>Game Flow Expectation</h3> <p>The Oracle expects Borneo to start on the front foot, pressing the first goal before the interval. Persebaya’s late resilience should shape a more volatile second half with chances at both ends. If Borneo capture the opener, their elite lead protection forces Persebaya to chase — a scenario that often produces late action and nudges totals upward.</p> <h3>Markets and Value</h3> <p>The market prices Borneo to win around 2.15, which is close to fair. The real value sits in derivatives that anchor to Borneo’s early-goal and lead-defense identity:</p> <ul> <li>Borneo to score first (1.80) — underpriced vs their 100% away first-goal rate.</li> <li>Borneo to win either half (1.62) — strong correlation with scoring first and HT leads.</li> <li>2nd half highest scoring (2.00) — both sides’ goal timing concentrates after the break.</li> <li>Borneo Over 0.5 first-half goals (1.88) — aligns with their away goal timing profile.</li> </ul> <h3>Longer Prices to Consider</h3> <p>For small stakes, Draw/Borneo at HT/FT (5.50) mirrors Persebaya’s high HT draw rate and Borneo’s late-game strength. A correct score of 1-2 to Borneo (8.50) fits the tactical flow: hosts can equalize, but the visitors’ late punch often decides it.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>Persebaya at GBT are stubborn, late-scoring, and buoyed by a fervent home crowd. But Borneo’s away identity — quick leads, structured defense, and late closing power — provides multiple high-value angles without overexposing to straight match-winner variance. Expect Borneo to set the tone early, with the second half bringing the drama.</p> </div>