Persis Solo vs Pusamania Borneo
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<html> <body> <h2>Persis Solo vs Borneo FC – Goals Expected as Title Chasers Visit Manahan</h2> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>Second-placed Borneo FC travel to Stadion Manahan to face 17th-placed Persis Solo in Liga 1 Round 18. The visitors are in the thick of a title race, while Persis are fighting to escape the relegation zone. Both sides enter with contrasting seasonal profiles: Borneo’s strong overall metrics versus Persis’ leaky home defense and frantic game states.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics: Manahan Has Been a Goal Magnet</h3> <p>Persis at home have been chaotic. They average 4.14 total goals per home match, with a perfect 100% hit rate on Over 2.5. They’ve yet to keep a clean sheet at Manahan and ship 2.71 goals per game. Borneo’s away numbers are also action-friendly (3.25 total goals per game), with 62% Over 2.5 and 62% BTTS.</p> <h3>Form, But With Caveats</h3> <p>Persis have slightly lifted their attacking output in the last eight matches (1.5 GF), yet their defense remains soft (2.5 GA). Borneo’s recent eight-game sample shows some regression: 1.25 PPG, 1.25 GF, 1.5 GA, including a run of tough away fixtures. Still, the broader season profile favors Borneo, who own an elite 2.18 PPG overall and dominate when scoring first.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Expect the Action After Half-Time</h3> <p>Both clubs skew late. Persis score 80% of their home goals in the second half and concede heavily late (six goals allowed in the 76–90 window at home). Borneo’s strongest period is also late (11 goals overall in 76–90), though they concede late away (six in that same window). This convergence points to a busy second half—ideal for second-half over markets or “highest scoring half: 2nd.”</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Persis’ back line struggles to defend space and transitions, reflected in a zero percent lead-defending rate at home—every home lead has been erased. Borneo’s wide and forward units—Coutinho, J. Anjos, and Da Silva types—thrive in transition and late phases. Expect Borneo to generate chances down the channels and at set plays. Conversely, Persis create enough volume to nick one, especially as Borneo’s away defense has wobbled late.</p> <h3>Situational Metrics and Motivation</h3> <p>Borneo score first in 88% of away games and manage leads effectively overall (71% lead-defending), though that drops on the road. Persis concede first at home 71% of the time. Motivation angles are clear: Borneo need points to keep title pace; Persis desperately need something from home fixtures. That urgency, combined with their second-half surges, underpins BTTS and second-half goal angles.</p> <h3>Where the Market Leaves Value</h3> <ul> <li>Over 2.5 at 1.90: Persis’ 100% home hit rate and Borneo’s away profiles justify this price as too low on true probability.</li> <li>BTTS Yes at 1.83: Persis home BTTS at 86% and Borneo away BTTS at 62% give a favorable combined outlook.</li> <li>Borneo Team Total Over 1.5 at 1.82: Persis have allowed 2+ goals in 6 of 7 home matches; their GA profile screams vulnerability.</li> <li>Team to Score First – Borneo at 1.57: Strong trend edge (88% away first scorer) and Persis’ tendency to concede first.</li> </ul> <h3>The Oracle’s View</h3> <p>Even with Borneo’s recent form dip, the matchup and venue splits are clear: this is set up for a high-event game. Goals are the primary angle, with Borneo more likely to prevail but susceptible to a late concession. A 1–2 away win fits the pattern, but the smarter core staking lies on Over 2.5, BTTS, and Borneo to score at least twice.</p> </body> </html>
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