ADT vs UTC
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<html> <head> <title>ADT vs UTC (Cajamarca) — Match Preview, Picks & Value</title> </head> <body> <h2>ADT vs UTC: Tight, Tactical, and Likely Decided Late</h2> <p>ADT welcome UTC (Cajamarca) to the Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma in a clash that profiles as a low-scoring, attritional contest. The data paints a consistent picture: ADT do their best work at home and after the break, while UTC are struggling to find goals and protect leads on their travels.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Both teams enter in poor overall form, but their trajectories differ by venue. ADT’s home return in this Clausura sits at 1.75 points per game (2W-1D-1L), with two 1–0 wins in their last three at Tarma. UTC have earned two-thirds of their meagre points away (0.67 PPG), yet remain winless in seven, with their attack dependent on Jarlin Quintero.</p> <p>Sentiment around both clubs is muted after quiet offseasons. Fans and media expect pragmatic football: ADT looking to bank home points; UTC aiming to stay compact and pinch results. No major injuries are flagged, suggesting familiar XIs and tactical continuity.</p> <h3>Tactical Themes</h3> <p>Expect a slow burn. ADT’s goal-timing is extreme: they’ve scored 100% of their goals in the second half and average their first goal at the 72nd minute. Their half-time record at home shows 75% draws, reinforcing the likelihood of an even first period. UTC, meanwhile, don’t equalize — literally: their equalizing rate sits at 0% this Clausura, which is a critical weakness in a match where the first goal could be late and fatal.</p> <p>In open play, ADT’s primary threat comes from Johnny Vidales’ movement and finishing, with João Rojas offering ball-carrying and fouls drawn to gain territory and set-piece situations. Carlos Cabello’s deliveries add secondary threat. UTC revolve around Quintero’s direct running and finishing; if ADT suffocate his service, UTC’s output drops sharply.</p> <h3>Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>ADT home PPG 1.75 vs UTC away PPG 0.67.</li> <li>ADT home clean sheets 50%; UTC failed to score 57% overall, 67% away.</li> <li>Half-time draws: ADT 57% overall (75% at home); UTC 57% overall.</li> <li>Lead control: ADT lead-defending 67% at home; UTC lead-defending 0% away.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>Bookmakers make ADT strong favorites (1.42 ML), but the better angles sit around game-state and timing. The first-half draw at 2.50 is supported by both teams’ HT patterns and ADT’s late scoring profile. BTTS No at 1.89 aligns with ADT’s 50% home clean sheet rate and UTC’s high fail-to-score frequency. Given where the goals tend to fall, the “2nd Half highest scoring half” at 1.99 also appeals.</p> <p>If you want to pair outcome and total, “ADT & Under 3.5” at 2.27 reflects the common 1–0/2–0/2–1 home-winning scripts in Tarma. For a bolder swing, Draw/ADT in the HT/FT at 4.50 mirrors ADT’s slow starts and stronger second half, while a 1–0 correct score at 6.50 leans into their two recent 1–0 home wins.</p> <h3>Projected Flow</h3> <p>Look for a cautious first half with few clear chances. ADT should tilt territory as the altitude and tempo build, introducing more threat after the interval through Vidales and Rojas, with Cabello’s set-pieces a recurring route. UTC’s best hope lies in set plays or a Quintero transition, but their inability to equalize once behind is a red flag away from home.</p> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <ul> <li>First Half Draw (2.50): frequent HT stalemates for both.</li> <li>BTTS No (1.89): UTC’s scoring anemia away meets ADT’s home clean-sheet rate.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half — 2nd (1.99): ADT’s goals land after the break.</li> <li>ADT & Under 3.5 (2.27): home edge in a low-total game.</li> </ul> <p>Expect a narrow ADT win forged in the second half; the market’s best prices align with that script.</p> </body> </html>
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