Atletico Grau vs Alianza Universidad

<div> <h2>Atlético Grau vs Alianza Universidad: Trends point to goals and a decisive second half</h2> <p>Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana hosts a finely poised Clausura meeting as Atlético Grau welcome an Alianza Universidad side whose away form has quietly impressed. With warm, dry conditions forecast, both managers have near full squads and little reason to deviate from their strongest XIs.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>Grau have had a streaky start (2-1-4), but they come off a tidy 2-0 home win over ADT that restored some confidence. Alianza Universidad (3-1-4, mid-table) have been notably sharper on the road, putting up a 1.75 points-per-game away return with a +0.25 goal difference per trip. Fans on both sides are cautiously optimistic: Grau supporters want more consistency in the final third, while Alianza’s faithful appreciate the step forward from last season, eyeing a top-half push.</p> <h3>Tactical battle: why the second half matters</h3> <p>The numbers scream “second-half match.” Grau see 78% of their goals scored after halftime and 73% conceded in the same period. Alianza Universidad also skew later (56% of goals scored after the break, 54% conceded). Both teams’ late goals against in the 76-90’ window (Grau 4, Alianza 4) make a frenetic finale a distinct possibility.</p> <p>For Grau, Neri Bandiera is the sharpest end-product outlet. He thrives as the game stretches, benefiting from Rodrigo Vilca’s ball-carrying and Diego Soto’s progression. On the other side, playmaker Marcos Lliuya knits the phases for Alianza Universidad and looks for striker Yorleys Mena in early, vertical channels—especially effective on the road, where the visitors have scored first in 75% of their trips and led at halftime in 50%.</p> <h3>Key matchups and personnel</h3> <ul> <li>Neri Bandiera (Grau) vs Guevara/Perleche (Alianza U full-backs): Bandiera’s movement between lines and into the inside-right channel will be a major test.</li> <li>Tapia–Franco (Grau CBs) vs Yorleys Mena: Physical battle that may decide set-piece and transition outcomes.</li> <li>Lliuya vs Guarderas/Soto: The midfield duel—if Lliuya gets enough touches between the lines, Alianza Universidad’s chance creation spikes.</li> </ul> <h3>Stat profile vs. pricing: where the value lies</h3> <p>Markets are leaning hard to the home side (1.57 ML), but the away underdog has real road chops: 1.75 PPG away, 50% time leading, and a 67% lead-defending rate. That underpins value in Draw/Away double chance around 2.30. On totals, both teams are above league averages for total goals per game (Grau 2.86; Alianza 2.75), but the venue split has been ruthlessly Under 3.5 (100% both sides in this split). That explains why Under 3.5 is short, yet the better price-to-trend combo is BTTS at 1.91, supported by Grau’s 71% BTTS overall (home 67%).</p> <p>The match script that fits most indicators: an initially cagey first half where Alianza are content to absorb and spring forward, then an increasingly open second half with both sides contributing to the scoreline. Given Grau’s habit of conceding late and Alianza’s improved away game state, a 1-1 or 2-1 either way is live. If the first goal arrives early (as average first scores are in the high 20s/low 30s minutes), the non-scoring side’s equalizing numbers are a worry: Alianza’s equalizing rate away is 0%, Grau’s overall is just 33%. That’s another reason to prioritize “Highest Scoring Half: 2nd Half,” when tired legs and stretched lines bring chances for both.</p> <h3>Injury news and conditions</h3> <p>No significant injuries or suspensions are reported for either side, so expect near first-choice lineups. Weather in Sullana (approx. 27°C, low rain chance) is conducive to late-game intensity and fewer technical errors.</p> <h3>Prediction and betting view</h3> <p>Expect a competitive, tactically disciplined first half that loosens after the interval. The strongest edges sit with BTTS and second-half markets, while the away double chance carries attractive value given Alianza’s road profile. Bandiera anytime is a fair prop given his role as Grau’s best finisher and the likelihood of a busier second half in the hosts’ favor.</p> </div>