Alianza Atletico vs Ayacucho FC
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<html> <head> <title>Alianza Atlético vs Ayacucho FC – Data-Led Match Preview</title> <meta charset="utf-8" /> </head> <body> <h2>Alianza Atlético vs Ayacucho FC: Tactical Chess at Sullana</h2> <p>Estadio Campeones del ’36 hosts a finely balanced Liga 1 clash where hard data suggests an attritional game. Alianza Atlético come in on the back of a disciplined 0-0 at Sporting Cristal, while Ayacucho arrive with subdued confidence after a 0-1 home loss to Cusco FC. Weather in Sullana is expected warm and dry (around 27°C), favoring a steady tempo and clean playing surface.</p> <h3>Form and Motivation</h3> <p>The table places Alianza and Ayacucho adjacent (15th and 16th), both on seven points from eight. The mood, however, differs: local sentiment around Alianza is cautiously optimistic about their defensive progress, whereas Ayacucho’s camp is under pressure after a tough run and a muted attack in recent weeks. With no major injuries reported, both sides should field their regular cores.</p> <h3>Styles, Numbers, and Where This Game Is Fought</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Alianza’s home profile is ultra-low event:</strong> 0.50 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game, 75% clean sheets, 100% Under 2.5, and 0% BTTS at home. They defend leads impeccably (lead defending 100%).</li> <li><strong>Ayacucho’s road profile is open:</strong> 1.25 scored, 1.50 conceded, 75% BTTS and Over 2.5 away. They equalize well on the road (60%) and tend to score late (avg scoring minute 56).</li> </ul> <p>These profiles collide: Alianza’s home suppression versus Ayacucho’s away volatility. In such clashes, venue often dictates rhythm. Expect Alianza’s compact block to make space scarce, forcing Ayacucho to probe patiently, particularly after the interval.</p> <h3>Key Player Matchups</h3> <p>Alianza’s spine has quietly impressed: José Villegas (7.13) and Horacio Benincasa (6.96) front a backline that has delivered 75% home clean sheets. In goal, Diego Melián (or Daniel Prieto if selected) provides security, while Miguel Agustín Graneros remains the chief attacking outlet, supported by Renato Espinosa and the energetic Jimmy Pérez. Yet the numbers are stark: Alianza have failed to score in 75% of home matches this phase.</p> <p>Ayacucho lean on Juan Valencia in goal, a busy presence (54 saves), and the defensive duo of Manuel Ganoza and Jonathan Bilbao (both rugged, both card-prone). In attack, Maximiliano Pérez (6 goals) and Juan David Lucumí (3G, 5A) are the danger men, with Marcelo Ferreira adding penalty-box craft. Their away returns show they can create, but translating that against a low block remains the big question.</p> <h3>Timing and the Second-Half Puzzle</h3> <p>Alianza’s home second halves have been barren: zero goals for and against across all four. Ayacucho’s away strikes typically come after HT. The tug-of-war here hinges on whether Ayacucho can break Alianza’s post-interval discipline. If the hosts score first, Ayacucho face a double lock: Alianza’s outstanding lead protection and a home crowd that embraces pragmatism.</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Alianza:</strong> Compact 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 hybrid, full-backs selective in advance (Perleche’s overlaps situational). Emphasis on set-pieces and protecting central zones.</li> <li><strong>Ayacucho:</strong> 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 transitions, Lucumí tasked with progression and 1v1s, Pérez arriving late into the box. Vulnerable to early concession but resilient chasing from behind.</li> </ul> <h3>Betting Lens: Where Value Lies</h3> <p>Given Alianza’s home output (0.50 GF, 75% FTS), the market seems to overrate their scoring ceiling. Home Team Total Under 1.5 at 2.05 is strong value. Unders should be favored broadly (1.77 for Under 2.5), and with Alianza’s post-HT lockdown, Second Half Under 1.5 at 1.62 is logical. For risk-tolerant bettors, X2 at 2.60 challenges the short home price (1.45) given Alianza’s modest 25% home win rate.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a cagey contest defined by Alianza’s defensive structure and Ayacucho’s attempts to manufacture late chances. If the first half ends level, the tempo may slow further. The most probable pathways are 0-0, 1-0, or 1-1, with marginal preference for low totals and conservative markets.</p> </body> </html>
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