Juan Pablo II College vs ADT

<div> <h2>Juan Pablo II College vs ADT Tarma: Cagey Clash Likely in Piura</h2> <p>Date: 30 September 2025 | Venue: Complejo Deportivo Juan Pablo II | Competition: Peru Primera División (Clausura)</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>ADT (5th) arrive on a three-match winning streak and with two consecutive clean sheets, pushing to consolidate a continental qualification challenge. Juan Pablo II (13th) had quietly pieced together a solid unbeaten run before a narrow 2-1 loss at Ayacucho; their trendline this Clausura is unmistakable—defensive resilience allied to limited attacking punch.</p> <p>At home, Juan Pablo II are miserly: just 0.40 goals conceded per game and an eye-catching 80% clean sheet rate. The trade-off is stark—60% failed to score and three 0-0 draws from five at this venue. ADT’s away profile is fragile (0.75 PPG, 50% failed to score), although they impressed last time on the road with a 0-2 win at Cusco.</p> <h3>Tactical Lens</h3> <p>Juan Pablo II’s structure hinges on a secure back line and a proactive goalkeeper in Matías Vega. The center-back tandem, notably Renzo Alfani and José Arón Sánchez, excel in duels and penalty-box management, which helps compress matches into low-margin contests. The creative burden falls to Cristhian Tizón between the lines, with set-piece threat a key lever in otherwise sparse chance creation.</p> <p>ADT’s stability is built around continuity: Victor Cedrón provides craft, Joao Rojas the vertical spark, and Johnny Vidales the penalty-box presence. Their late-goal bias (82% of GF after halftime) is a consistent theme; they often keep games tight until the final quarter. However, away from Tarma they struggle to seize the initiative early and rarely recover when they concede first.</p> <h3>Key Battles</h3> <ul> <li>Alfani/Sánchez vs Vidales: Aerial duels and set-pieces could be decisive, with Vidales in prolific domestic form but up against one of the division’s better home defenses.</li> <li>Tizón vs ADT’s double pivot: If Tizón can draw fouls in advanced zones, Juan Pablo II’s best chances may come from restarts rather than open play.</li> <li>Second-half management: ADT’s 61–90 minute surge meets a home side that has conceded just two home goals all Clausura—tempo and substitutions will matter.</li> </ul> <h3>Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>BTTS at this venue is rare: Juan Pablo II home BTTS 20%; ADT away BTTS 25%.</li> <li>Juan Pablo II have kept clean sheets in 80% of home matches.</li> <li>ADT away have failed to score in 50% of outings and concede first 75% of the time.</li> <li>First-half stasis: Juan Pablo II home HT draws 80%.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>Market prices tilt toward a tight match, but there’s still exploitable value. “BTTS – No” around 1.85 looks attractive given both sides’ venue-specific BTTS rates and ADT’s away fail-to-score percentage. Under 2.5 goals at 1.67 aligns with Juan Pablo II’s 1.20 total goals per home game and ADT’s 25% Over 2.5 away rate. For larger prices, Home Clean Sheet at 2.62 draws directly from the 80% home CS rate, while 0-0 correct score at 8.00 is supported by three scoreless home draws out of five.</p> <h3>Team News and Setups</h3> <p>No major injury flags for either side. ADT will ride the Vidales–Cedrón axis, with Montenegro and Rojas offering late-phase thrust. Juan Pablo II continue to rotate younger attackers like Fabrizio Roca and Nahuel Rodríguez around the steady creators, with defensive continuity prized. Weather is set fair—no excuses for performance or pitch conditions.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Given the clash of styles—ADT’s second-half push against Juan Pablo II’s home defensive suffocation—the balance of probabilities favors a low-scoring contest. Expect a slow-burn first half and limited high-quality chances throughout. A cagey draw or a narrow home win via set-piece or transition feels most plausible.</p> <p><strong>Suggested angle:</strong> Under 2.5 Goals; BTTS – No. Correct score lean: 0-0 or 1-0.</p> </div>