Alianza Universidad vs Alianza Lima

<div> <h2>Alianza Universidad vs Alianza Lima: Form, Odds, and Tactical Lens</h2> <p>Estadio Heraclio Tapia in Huánuco hosts a compelling Clausura clash. The market installs Alianza Lima as rightful favorites at 1.85, while A. Universidad are 4.20 and the draw at 3.40. The data advantages sit with the visitors, particularly across venue split and second-half dominance.</p> <h3>Form & Context</h3> <p>A. Universidad’s home numbers are rugged: 0.60 points per game and 80% defeats at this venue, conceding 2.20 per game. They enter on a four-match losing streak, and their last-8 trend is negative across points and defense.</p> <p>Alianza Lima, meanwhile, have steadied: four wins in their past eight. Their last outing, a 2-1 comeback against Atlético Grau, underlined resilience. In the form table for the last eight, they sit near the top, while A. Universidad languish near the bottom.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchups</h3> <p>Lima’s identity under pressure has been a compact mid-block shifting into controlled possession, with productivity escalating after half-time. The numbers are stark: 76% of their league goals are scored in the second half, and they’ve conceded just four after the break during this Clausura stretch. That dovetails with A. Universidad’s chronic late leakage, particularly between minutes 76–90.</p> <p>On the ball, Pablo Ceppelini’s passing lanes and Kevin Quevedo/Eryc Castillo’s directness give Lima verticality, while Paolo Guerrero’s back-to-goal play forms the reference point. For the hosts, Marcos Lliuya’s creativity is the supply line to Yorleys Mena, a robust target who owns 11 league goals this season; however, service and territorial control have been inconsistent at home.</p> <h3>Key Players</h3> <ul> <li>Paolo Guerrero (AL): 8 league goals in 16; finding scoring rhythm and strong in duels.</li> <li>Kevin Quevedo (AL): Pace and end product; livewire in transition and combinations.</li> <li>Guillermo Viscarra (AL): Reliable keeper underpinning a 40% away clean-sheet rate.</li> <li>Yorleys Mena (AU): The hosts’ cutting edge; if he’s isolated, their attack blunts quickly.</li> <li>Marcos Lliuya (AU): Chance creator; set-pieces and threaded passes their main route.</li> </ul> <h3>Second-Half Bias and Where the Game Tilts</h3> <p>Few fixtures showcase such a clean second-half statistical bias. Lima’s surge after HT and A. Universidad’s propensity to concede late create converging signals: away to win the second half is well-priced at 2.20; “highest scoring half: 2nd” is similarly attractive at 2.10. The “team to score last – Alianza Lima” at 1.67 aligns with both teams’ timing curves.</p> <h3>Odds and Value Discussion</h3> <p>Alianza Lima’s 1.85 ML implies ~54% probability. Given A. Universidad’s home struggles (0.60 PPG, 80% defeats) and Lima’s defensive metrics away, a 60%+ fair line is defensible, creating value on the away side. Risk caveat: Lima’s away GF is just 0.80; hence, match tempo and finishing variance are non-trivial. That’s why the better edges are in the second-half markets, where Lima’s profile is strongest.</p> <h3>Injuries/Team News</h3> <p>No major injury suspensions are indicated pre-match. Expect Lima to keep a veteran spine (Viscarra, Garcés/Zambrano, Ceppelini, Guerrero) with Quevedo/Castillo flanking. A. Universidad will lean on Lliuya–Mena axis and hope to limit early damage.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Alianza Lima to win a game that likely opens up after the break. The sharper prices sit on second-half angles and Lima to score late.</p> <p><strong>Pick:</strong> Alianza Lima ML (1.85). Secondary: Lima to win 2H (2.20); Highest scoring half 2nd (2.10); Team to score last – Alianza Lima (1.67). Sprinkle: Draw/Alianza Lima HT/FT (4.75). Prop: Paolo Guerrero anytime (2.30).</p> </div>