Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico

<div> <h2>D. Garcilaso vs Alianza Atlético: Data Points Signal a Tight, Low-Scoring Clash in Cusco</h2> <p>The Clausura meeting at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega pits a solid home operator against one of the most goal-shy away sides in the division. With cool, thin mountain air in Cusco and a resolute home defense, the numbers point convincingly toward a low-scoring encounter—one that Garcilaso should control without cutting loose.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Garcilaso arrive unbeaten at home this Clausura (W2 D4 L0), conceding just 0.67 goals per game in Cusco. While their broader eight-game trend shows a slight defensive wobble, the home baseline remains robust. Alianza Atlético, by contrast, have toiled on their travels: 0.40 points per game away, no victories, and a meagre 0.20 goals per game. Supporters’ sentiment reflects this divergence—confidence around Garcilaso’s upward tilt and skepticism surrounding Alianza’s attack and depth .</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies and Timing</h3> <p>Alianza’s away matches are staccato, slow-burn affairs. They’ve yet to score in the first half of an away match this Clausura (GF 0, GA 3 at HT), and three of five away games were 0-0 at the break. Their average minute of the first away goal scored is a late 73—if it arrives at all. Garcilaso’s home games are measured too: just 2.00 total goals per game in Cusco with over 2.5 landing only 33% of the time.</p> <p>Given this, the first half figures to be cagey. Garcilaso own a 33% rate of 0-0 at half at home and split their HT states 50% leading/50% drawing. Alianza’s 60% away HT draws dovetail neatly with a first-half stalemate scenario.</p> <h3>Situational Edges</h3> <p>The starkest situational indicator: Alianza away fail to score in 80% of matches. When they concede first, they average just 0.25 away points—comebacks are rare. Garcilaso, meanwhile, are resilient: a strong equalizing rate and respectable points even when conceding first underscore their control at altitude.</p> <h3>Key Individuals</h3> <p>Garcilaso’s attacking edge comes largely from Pablo Erustes (12 goals) and Ezequiel Naya (6). Erustes’ movement between lines often generates the one or two clear chances Garcilaso need in tight games. For Alianza, Graneros (11) is the primary threat, yet the collective away output remains minimal.</p> <p>There are conflicting reports around suspensions and injuries—some sources list absences that don’t align with squad registrations. Treat any late suspension news with caution and verify close to kickoff; adjust player props accordingly.</p> <h3>What the Odds Say—and Where the Value Lies</h3> <ul> <li>Under 2.5 (1.62): Mirrors 0% over 2.5 in Alianza’s away slate and a 2.00 home total-goals average for Garcilaso.</li> <li>Alianza Under 0.5 Team Goals (2.00): Priced at a 50% break-even versus an 80% historical away FTS—clear value if trends persist.</li> <li>First Half Draw (2.10): Supported by Alianza’s 60% away HT draw rate and Garcilaso’s 50% HT draw/lead split at home.</li> <li>Home Clean Sheet Yes (2.00): Correlated with Alianza’s away attacking anemia; a viable alternative to the Alianza TT under.</li> <li>Correct Score 1-0 (6.00): A sensible long price in a match projected to be played at low tempo with a home edge.</li> </ul> <h3>Projected Match Pattern</h3> <p>Expect Garcilaso to control territory without overcommitting, using altitude and a sturdy back line to squeeze space. Alianza’s best hope is a rare set-piece or a late transitional moment, but the data says those moments are infrequent away from Sullana. The likely flow is a slow first half (0-0 or 1-0 at HT) and a narrow home margin by full time.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>All roads point to a tight home win and a suppressed scoreline. Under 2.5 is the best blend of reliability and price; Alianza team total under 0.5 at 2.00 is the sharp value. For a sprinkle, first-half draw and 1-0 correct score align with the timing and defensive profiles.</p> </div>