Alianza Atletico vs Cultural Santa Rosa
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<html> <head> <title>Alianza Atlético vs Cultural Santa Rosa: Betting Preview and Tactical Breakdown</title> </head> <body> <h2>Alianza Atlético target control against travel-sick Santa Rosa</h2> <p>Alianza Atlético welcome Cultural Santa Rosa (Los Chankas) to the Estadio Campeones del 36 with a clear mandate: turn their defensive home profile into three points. The forecast in Sullana is dry and mild (22–26°C), ideal for a measured, controlled game—exactly the rhythm Alianza prefer at home.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>Alianza’s trendline has ticked up in the last eight matches, with goals for improving by 36% and a statement 4-2 victory away at Deportivo Garcilaso. At home they’ve recently dispatched Ayacucho 3-0 after previously beating Cajamarca 2-0, underpinning their reputation for clean sheets in Sullana.</p> <p>Santa Rosa, by contrast, live a split reality: perfect at home but brittle on the road. Away they average just 0.50 points per game and concede 2.83 goals per match. Their last three away outings read 3-0, 6-1, and 2-0 defeats—the 6-1 at Melgar spotlighting defensive frailty and late-game collapses.</p> <h3>Tactical matchup</h3> <p>Expect Alianza to build in a 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 hybrid, featuring robust central defending (Villegas, Benincasa) and early vertical punches toward Agustín Graneros, the division’s form forward with 13 goals and penalty duties. Wide forward Guillermo Larios offers diagonal runs into the box, while the midfield pairing balances screening and second-ball collection.</p> <p>Santa Rosa will seek transitions through José Manzaneda and Isaac Camargo. Manzaneda provides creative entries and set-piece craft; Camargo has been the late-game poacher. But their away-state management is poor: they’ve been behind at half-time in five of six away matches and equalize away only 17% of the time.</p> <h3>Key numbers shaping the game</h3> <ul> <li>Alianza home defensive base: 0.50 GA per game; 67% clean sheets; BTTS at home 0%.</li> <li>Santa Rosa away: 0.67 GF, 2.83 GA; half-time losing 83% of the time.</li> <li>Goal timing: Alianza score early at home (0-15 GF=4); Santa Rosa concede heavily before and around half-time.</li> <li>Game-state: When Alianza score first at home, they take 3.00 ppg and defend leads at 100%.</li> </ul> <h3>Individual battles to watch</h3> <p>Graneros vs. a right-side that may be shuffled for Santa Rosa due to a minor knock could be decisive. Graneros’ timing into the box and penalty threat match up well against a back line that has conceded multiple spot-kicks recently. Manzaneda’s drifts between lines are Santa Rosa’s best route to disruption, but he’ll need central support and territory—both hard to come by in Sullana.</p> <h3>What the market may be missing</h3> <p>Markets respect Alianza on the 1x2 (around 1.42), but there’s residual upside in derivative angles. With 0% BTTS in Alianza home matches and Santa Rosa blanking in 50% of away games, BTTS No near 1.80 is materially mispriced. The first-half market (Home ~1.95) also doesn’t fully reflect Santa Rosa’s 83% away half-time deficits versus Alianza’s habit of quick strikes at home.</p> <h3>Projected script</h3> <p>Alianza should play front foot from kickoff, aiming to land the first punch in the opening 20 minutes. If the hosts go ahead, their 100% lead-defending rate at home suggests a chokehold thereafter. Scoreline shapes gravitate to 1-0 or 2-0, with a 3-0 only if Santa Rosa chase recklessly late.</p> <h3>Best bets summary</h3> <ul> <li>Both Teams to Score – No (1.80): Home CS profile vs away FTS.</li> <li>First Half – Alianza (1.95): Visitors’ chronic HT deficits.</li> <li>Clean Sheet – Alianza (2.00): Even money for a 60%+ outcome.</li> <li>Asian Handicap – Alianza -1.0 (1.72): Push protection if it finishes 1-0.</li> <li>Anytime Scorer – Agustín Graneros (2.10): Form nine on pens vs weak away defense.</li> </ul> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Alianza’s disciplined home defensive matrix and Santa Rosa’s away fragility point clearly in one direction. Expect an early Alianza advantage, professional game management, and a low-ish scoring home win: 1-0 or 2-0.</p> </body> </html>
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