Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs CSM Satu Mare
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<html> <head><title>Ceahlăul vs CSM Satu Mare: Liga II Preview, Odds & Betting Insight</title></head> <body> <h2>Ceahlăul Piatra Neamț vs CSM Satu Mare – Form, Odds and Tactical Preview</h2> <p>Two teams desperate to halt losing runs meet in Piatra Neamț. Ceahlăul enter on a three-match slide and six without a win, while bottom side CSM Satu Mare have also lost three straight. The stakes are obvious: this is a six-pointer in the relegation picture, and the market narrowly trusts the home side at 1.76 to win.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Ceahlăul sit 15th with 11 points from 11 games, and performance trends hint at a defense stabilising: goals against have dipped to 1.63 per game over the last eight (down 18.5% from their season rate). Their attack, though, remains modest at roughly a goal a game. Satu Mare, rooted to the foot of the table with 4 points, have the league’s worst defensive record overall (2.82 conceded per game), yet their away profile is less chaotic than at home—conceding 1.83 per game away and scoring just 0.50.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Ceahlăul’s home figures are balanced: 1.00 PPG, 1.20 GF and 1.40 GA across five matches, with a noteworthy 40% clean sheet rate. Satu Mare’s away attack is the critical weakness: three goals in six trips (0.50 per game) and a 50% failed-to-score rate. In a league where home advantage matters, those splits nudge the probability toward a controlled Ceahlăul performance rather than a shootout.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Under Cristian Pustai, Ceahlăul have generally set up in a 4-2-3-1. Expect them to funnel play through wide attacking midfielders with Buziuc and Petre key in carrying threat between the lines, while veteran Azdren Llullaku offers penalty-box nous. Against a Satu Mare side that has struggled to progress the ball reliably away from home, Ceahlăul should command territory and cumulative chance volume. The visitors’ best away results (a 0-1 win at Metalul Buzău and a 1-1 at Selimbar) came with deep blocks and low-event game states; they are unlikely to open up here.</p> <h3>Key Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Ceahlăul clean sheets: 40% at home</li> <li>Ceahlăul BTTS: 27% overall (league 52%)</li> <li>CSM Satu Mare away GF: 0.50 per game</li> <li>CSM Satu Mare away failed-to-score: 50%</li> </ul> <p>These figures point to a match where goals are likely at a premium and where the visitors might again be blanked.</p> <h3>Odds and Betting Angles</h3> <p>The market offers 1.78 on CSM Satu Mare Under 1.0 team goals—a strong angle considering their away scoring rate. BTTS No at 2.05 looks mispriced given the combination of Ceahlăul’s low BTTS profile and Satu Mare’s attacking struggles on the road. With a projected total around two goals, Under 2.5 at 2.00 is also attractive.</p> <p>On sides, the 1.76 home moneyline is reasonable but carries variance given Ceahlăul’s recent run. A safer positional choice is Ceahlăul -0.25 at 1.54, which moderates draw risk. For those seeking bigger prices aligned with the primary thesis, the exact score 1-0 at 6.10 fits the statistical profile and match dynamic.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <p>For Ceahlăul, watch the interplay between the attacking midfield trio and the lone striker—Buziuc’s movement and Petre’s directness can stress Satu Mare’s fullbacks, while Llullaku’s timing inside the box is always a threat. Set pieces could also be decisive against a defense that concedes good chances when penned in.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Given Satu Mare’s anaemic away attack and Ceahlăul’s improved defensive baseline, a narrow home win is the likeliest outcome in a low-event contest. The data supports a strong lean toward Satu Mare team total unders and BTTS No.</p> <h4>The Oracle’s Lean: Ceahlăul 1-0 CSM Satu Mare</h4> <p>Primary bet: Satu Mare Under 1.0 team goals (1.78). Secondary: BTTS No (2.05), Under 2.5 (2.00), Ceahlăul -0.25 (1.54). Longshot: 1-0 correct score (6.10).</p> </body> </html>
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