Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
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<html> <head><title>Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: Data-Led Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Tactical and Betting Preview</h2> <p>Date: 26 September 2025 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Ar Rass | Kickoff: 15:35 UTC</p> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>It’s early days in the Saudi Pro League, but the trajectories are already diverging. Al-Ahli Jeddah, infused with elite talent and confidence after an ambitious summer, arrive unbeaten and aiming up the table. Al-Hazm, who finished near the relegation places last season, are banking on defensive structure and tight games to grind out points. With clear differences in squad quality and ambition, this is a test of patience and control for the visitors against a low-event home side.</p> <h3>Form Snapshot</h3> <p>Al-Hazm have two points from three outings (0W-2D-1L), scoring just once in 270 minutes. Their home debut ended 0-0, which aligns with a profile of cautious first halves and limited chance creation. Al-Ahli (1W-2D-0L) have already shown the capacity to overcome adversity—coming from 0-3 down to draw 3-3 with Al Hilal—and remain solid defensively in the main, taking a 0-0 away at Al Ittifaq.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Why the Late Show Is Likely</h3> <p>Hazm are a second-half team by the numbers: they’ve scored 100% of their goals after the interval and have conceded exclusively after the break (61’+, including late concessions). Al-Ahli’s scoring is heavily back-loaded, too—75% of their goals arrive in the second half and three of them came between minutes 76-90. Expect a measured first half and an increase in tempo after the hour as Ahli turn the screw.</p> <h3>Tactics and Lineups</h3> <p>Al-Ahli should put out a near full-strength side: Mendy behind a backline featuring Demiral and Ibañez, Kessié anchoring midfield, and star turns like Riyad Mahrez and Ivan Toney supplying and finishing the attacks. The blend of control and directness is evident: Mahrez can unlock compact defenses; Toney offers penalty-box craft and late-game punch. Al-Hazm’s XI has been more fluid. Expect a compact 4-4-2/4-5-1 with Varela important in goal (7.13 average rating) and creative load on Fábio Martins and Amir Sayoud. Omar Al Somah’s minutes suggest an impact role; he is yet to score.</p> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <ul> <li>Mahrez vs Hazm’s low block: The Algerian has two assists in three and profiles as the primary chance creator. His service to Toney is a decisive angle.</li> <li>Set plays: Demiral and Ibañez bring aerial threat; Hazm’s deep shape means defending restarts is crucial.</li> <li>Game-state control: Ahli boast 100% equalizing and lead-defense rates so far; Hazm’s lead-defending rate is 0%, underlining the difference under pressure.</li> </ul> <h3>Statistical Lean</h3> <p>Everything about Hazm screams low event: 0.33 goals scored per game, 67% failed-to-score overall, and a 100% rate of 0-0 at half-time. Ahli, even with their firepower, are trending to do their damage late. That cocktail points strongly to first-half unders, BTTS No, and a second-half swing to the visitors.</p> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>Markets have Al-Ahli short to win (1.36), which is fair on quality but skinny on value. The better prices lie adjacent: BTTS No (1.90) leverages Hazm’s 67% FTS and Ahli’s robust clean sheet profile. Win to nil (2.40) pushes the same angle further. The 0-0 HT at 3.50 fits both teams’ timing patterns and provides an excellent price for those expecting a slow burner.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Al-Hazm 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah. Expect a tight first half and a decisive moment for Ahli after the hour. Toney’s movement and Mahrez’s quality delivery are likely to define the difference, with Mendy and the center-backs keeping Hazm at arm’s length.</p> </body> </html>
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