Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
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<html> <head> <title>Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: Tactical Preview, Odds and Key Angles</title> </head> <body> <h2>Form and Context</h2> <p>Round 6 brings a stark contrast in trajectories. Al Najma sit 18th after five defeats from five, conceding 13 goals and scoring four. Visitors Al-Ahli are unbeaten (2W, 3D), allowing just four goals and posting three clean sheets. Pre-season expectations had Al-Ahli pushing the league’s elite, bolstered by headline arrivals Merih Demiral, Franck Kessié, Riyad Mahrez and Ivan Toney. Al Najma, meanwhile, underwent a rebuild that hasn’t yet translated into points.</p> <h2>Team News and Predicted XIs</h2> <p>Al Najma’s outlook is complicated by the suspension of key centre-back Samir Caetano—an untimely absence for a defense already under strain. Al-Ahli will reportedly miss Roger Ibañez and could be without Wenderson Galeno. Even so, a likely Al-Ahli 4-2-3-1 of Mendy; Majrashi, Hamidou, Demiral, Dams; Kessié, Aljohani; Mahrez, Millot, Gonçalves; Toney, retains balance and threat. Al Najma are expected to mirror 4-2-3-1 with Boutobba, Al Shammry and Ali Jasim supporting Lázaro.</p> <h2>Tactical Matchup</h2> <p>Al Najma have struggled to control games after the interval. They’ve conceded five times in the 76–90’ window, and both their home matches were 0-0 at the break before drifting away late. Al-Ahli are the inverse: patient, compact and increasingly dangerous late, with four of their seven league goals arriving after 75’. That dynamic tilts the game toward a slow-burning first half and decisive second-half moments in favor of the visitors.</p> <h2>Key Battles</h2> <ul> <li><b>Right flank supply:</b> Mahrez vs Najma’s left side. With Caetano out, channel coverage and set-piece marking become critical. Mahrez already has two league assists and remains Al-Ahli’s primary creator.</li> <li><b>Toney vs centre-backs:</b> Toney’s hold-up and penalty area instincts underpin Al-Ahli’s late surges. Najma’s average minute conceded at home is 84’—dangerous territory against Toney’s timing.</li> <li><b>Midfield control:</b> Kessié’s ball-winning and power against Najma’s double pivot. If Al-Ahli dominate second balls, territorial pressure will mount after HT.</li> </ul> <h2>Numbers That Matter</h2> <ul> <li>Al Najma home HT scores: 0-0 in both matches. Al-Ahli away HTs: 0-0 in both.</li> <li>Al-Ahli away defense: 0.00 GA in two matches; 100% clean sheets on the road.</li> <li>Late swing: Al Najma 5 GA in 76–90; Al-Ahli 4 GF in 76–90.</li> <li>Totals profile: Al Najma home total goals 2.0 per game; Al-Ahli away totals 1.0 per game.</li> </ul> <h2>Odds and Value</h2> <p>The market has Al-Ahli heavy favorites (1.28). The sharper value hides in derivatives that exploit the timing profile:</p> <ul> <li><b>Draw/Al-Ahli HT/FT (4.00):</b> Both sides trend to 0-0 HT away/home respectively; Al-Ahli have already converted that platform into a 0-2 win at Hazm.</li> <li><b>Second-half winner Al-Ahli (1.55):</b> Statistical synergy with late scoring and Najma’s late concessions.</li> <li><b>Highest scoring half 2nd (1.95):</b> Both teams’ splits steer to after the break.</li> <li><b>Al-Ahli & Under 3.5 (2.20):</b> Aligns with low away totals and Najma’s conservative home totals.</li> </ul> <h2>Players to Watch</h2> <p><b>Ivan Toney</b> is in rhythm with three league goals and will test Najma’s makeshift central defense. <b>Riyad Mahrez</b> remains the creative hub; at 3.00 for an assist, his delivery (open play and set pieces) carries value. On the hosts’ side, <b>Bilal Boutobba</b> is the best outlet to relieve pressure and manufacture counters, while <b>Ali Jasim</b> has chipped in with vital contributions.</p> <h2>The Oracle’s Verdict</h2> <p>Expect a measured first half and a decisive second. Al-Ahli’s structure, superior game-state management and late-phase punch should prevail. Best bet: Al-Ahli to win with a low total. For those seeking a bigger price, Draw/Al-Ahli HT/FT neatly matches both teams’ HT patterns.</p> </body> </html>
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