Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh
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<html> <head> <title>Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh: Match Preview, Odds and Tactical Analysis</title> </head> <body> <h2>Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh — Form, Odds, and Tactical View</h2> <p>Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al Riyadh to Alinma Stadium on October 30, with the hosts sitting 5th and the visitors 13th. The expectation is clear: Al-Ahli, unbeaten through six, are strong favorites to take care of business against a side that has struggled badly on the road.</p> <h3>Context and Momentum</h3> <p>Al-Ahli enter with convincing momentum and a league-leading clean sheet profile per recent reports, underpinned by an elite defensive record (0.67 goals conceded per game). They’ve banked results home and away, and the late-game scoring pattern (four goals 76-90’) underscores their finishing power and fitness. Al Riyadh, conversely, have found joy at home (two wins) but away form is alarming: three defeats from three, conceding 11 across those trips.</p> <h3>Key Numbers That Shape the Market</h3> <ul> <li>Al Riyadh away: 0W-0D-3L, 0.67 GF, 3.67 GA, 100% losing at half-time.</li> <li>Al-Ahli home: 1W-2D-0L, 1.67 GF, 1.33 GA; overall unbeaten in six.</li> <li>Goal flow: Al-Ahli score 62% after half-time; Riyadh concede early away (first conceded on average minute 12).</li> <li>Total trends: Riyadh away matches average 4.33 goals; Over 3.5 has landed in 67% of their away games.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Expect Al-Ahli to control territory and tempo through Franck Kessié and Enzo Millot, funneling possession to Riyad Mahrez on the right to create isolation for Ivan Toney. The crossing threat and set pieces also bring Merih Demiral and Roger Ibañez into play. Al Riyadh’s best route is transition: Teddy Okou’s ball-carrying and Tozé’s deliveries toward Mamadou Sylla, who has been clinical (4 goals in 6). But sustaining counters requires escaping pressure, and Al Riyadh’s back line (Yoann Barbet, Sergio González) has been overwhelmed away from home.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Ivan Toney (Al-Ahli): Primary finisher and penalty taker; recent scoring form and strong aerial presence vs a defense shipping 3.67 away.</li> <li>Riyad Mahrez (Al-Ahli): Creative hub with volume of key passes; a candidate for an assist if Al-Ahli win wide.</li> <li>Mamadou Sylla (Al Riyadh): In-form striker; if Riyadh score, he’s the likeliest source.</li> <li>Édouard Mendy (Al-Ahli): The foundation of Al-Ahli’s improved defensive record and clean sheet cadence.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value Angles</h3> <p>The 1x2 price on Al-Ahli is short, reflecting the gulf. Value emerges on margins and totals. Al Riyadh’s away profile—early concessions, HT deficits, and multi-goal losses—supports HT/FT Home and Asian handicap angles. Over 3.5 goals offers plus money and aligns with Riyadh’s 67% away hit rate, but is riskier if Al-Ahli manage the game at 2-0.</p> <h3>What Could Change the Script?</h3> <p>Early variance. If Al Riyadh somehow survive the first 15–20 minutes, they can compress the match and lean on Borjan’s shot-stopping. A penalty or set-piece for Al-Ahli, however, would accelerate scoreboard pressure. Keep an eye on late team news for any rotations—none expected from Al-Ahli’s core—while Al Riyadh may tweak fullback roles to fortify the flanks.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Al-Ahli’s control and bench depth should tell. The visitors’ away defensive numbers are simply too soft against elite attackers. Expect an Al-Ahli win by multiple goals, with Toney central to the outcome.</p> <p><strong>Leans:</strong> Al-Ahli -2 Asian, Al-Ahli HT, Al-Ahli & Over 2.5, sprinkle Over 3.5 at plus money. Toney anytime as the player prop.</p> </body> </html>
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