Vlašim vs Zbrojovka Brno
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<html> <head> <title>Vlašim vs Zbrojovka Brno – FNL Round 14 Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Vlašim vs Zbrojovka Brno: Top meets bottom in a pivotal FNL clash</h2> <p>League leaders Zbrojovka Brno travel to Stadion Kollárova ulice to face 15th-placed Vlašim on Sunday, October 26, in Round 14 of the Czech FNL. With Brno on a seven-match unbeaten league run and Vlašim mired in a relegation fight, the form book tilts heavily toward the visitors. Yet the hosts have shown flickers of resilience at home, making this a compelling test of Brno’s promotion credentials.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>Brno sit first with 32 points from 13 games, anchored by a powerful attack (2.38 goals per game) and a stingy defense (0.85 GA). Their last outing finished 0–0 with Opava, a top-three side, but overall momentum remains strong, with six wins in their last eight. Vlašim occupy 15th, with only 10 points, and rank 14th over the last eight matches. A 3–0 home win over Jihlava hinted at a turnaround, but Vlašim’s inability to recover when conceding first (0.00 ppg when falling behind) remains a glaring issue.</p> <h3>Venue dynamics</h3> <p>Vlašim are notably better at home: 1.17 PPG, 1.67 GF and just 1.00 GA. They’ve kept some matches tight (BTTS 33% at home), and their lead-defending rate at Kollárova ulice is a respectable 67%. However, Brno’s away profile is elite: 2.67 PPG, 2.83 GF, 0.83 GA, and a 50% clean sheet rate on their travels. Crucially, Brno have trailed away for only 3% of match time, a stark indicator of control.</p> <h3>Tactical matchups and timing patterns</h3> <p>Brno’s press and vertical transitions translate into early strikes: away from home they’ve led at halftime in five of six matches, scoring nine first-half goals. Vlašim’s average minute conceded first is 33’ and they concede first at home half the time, a bad matchup against Brno’s fast start. If the visitors do score first—as they have in 83% of their away games—Vlašim’s poor equalizing rate (25% at home) and 0.00 ppg when conceding first point toward a long afternoon for the hosts.</p> <h3>Key players to watch</h3> <p>Zbrojovka have goals spread among multiple threats: Rigino Cicilia (recent penalty), Jakub Janetzký, Oliver Velich and Jakub Šelnar have all contributed in recent weeks, while Bienvenue Kanakimana offers pace and depth. Vlašim’s recent bright spots are Jakub Dufek and Elmedin Rama. The hosts’ best path is to keep the contest level for as long as possible and attack set pieces; however, Brno’s lead-defending rate (77% overall, 83% away) means falling behind is likely terminal.</p> <h3>Numbers that shape the betting</h3> <ul> <li>Brno away led at HT in 83% of matches; Vlašim concede first around 33’ on average.</li> <li>Brno away clean sheets: 50%; Vlašim BTTS at home only 33%.</li> <li>Brno away goals: 2.83 per match; Vlašim home GA: 1.00, keeping scorelines more controlled but not necessarily resistant to defeat.</li> <li>Vlašim ppg when conceding first: 0.00; Brno ppg when scoring first: 3.0.</li> </ul> <h3>Most likely game script</h3> <p>Expect Brno to assert early control, create the better chances before halftime, and manage the game state once ahead. Vlašim’s best period could be the middle third of the match, especially if they can generate counterattacks through wide areas and dead balls. Brno’s late scoring (league-high 76–90’) also means the visitors remain dangerous through full time.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s verdict</h3> <p>The clearest edge is on early Brno angles: the away team to score in the first half and HT winner markets. The mainline away win is also solid at current prices, while “win to nil” offers attractive upside if Vlašim’s attack fails to break the visitors’ compact block. Longshot seekers can consider Draw/Brno (HT/FT) given Vlašim’s tendency to reach halftime level at home.</p> <p><strong>Best bet:</strong> Brno to score Over 0.5 first-half goals.</p> </body> </html>
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