Sutjeska vs Mornar

<div> <h2>Sutjeska vs Mornar: Title favourites face stubborn upstarts in Nikšić</h2> <p>Stadion Kraj Bistrice sets the stage for a compelling top-of-the-table clash as leaders Sutjeska host second-placed Mornar. The weather is set to be cold and damp, but playable, with a slick surface that may quicken transitions and favour the stronger, deeper squad.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Sutjeska arrive as the league’s form side: unbeaten in seven and winners of six of their last eight. At home they’ve been imperious—seven wins from nine and only one defeat—averaging 2.22 goals for and just 0.78 against. Mornar’s rise is one of the season’s stories, yet their away profile is far shakier: three wins and five losses from nine, with a worrying second-half trend of conceding late.</p> <h3>Tactical Match-up</h3> <p>Expect Sutjeska to set up in a 4-2-3-1, looking to control territory and tempo. Their hallmark this season is strong game-state management; they score first in 78% of home matches and defend leads at an excellent 88% rate. Mornar, typically compact in a 4-4-2/4-2-3-1, will look to frustrate and counter. Their road games, however, skew heavily towards late concessions—71% of away goals against arrive after the break—precisely where Sutjeska are at their strongest.</p> <h3>Key Numbers You Need to Know</h3> <ul> <li>Sutjeska at home: 2.44 ppg, 78% wins, 45% time leading vs just 6% time trailing.</li> <li>Mornar away: 1.11 ppg, 56% defeats, 30% time trailing; concede 1.56 per away game.</li> <li>Second-half trend: Sutjeska home produce 19 total second-half goals in 9 matches (2.11 per game); Mornar away 15 in 9 (1.67).</li> <li>First half pattern: Both sides show a 56% half-time draw rate in the relevant venue splits.</li> </ul> <h3>Team News and Selection Notes</h3> <p>Sutjeska are without midfielder Marko Jovanović (hamstring), while Aleksandar Jovanović faces a late fitness test and may feature from the bench. Even so, the hosts have spread the goals well at home, with impact off the bench a noted feature of their late surges.</p> <p>Mornar’s talisman Stefan Denković is a doubt after a training knock; should he miss out, their attacking ceiling dips, especially away from home. Defensively they’ve been well-drilled, but the second-half fade has been costly in hostile venues.</p> <h3>Where the Value Lies</h3> <p>The Oracle marks value on the home win at 2.05. Market pricing suggests roughly a coin flip; the data paints a stronger home edge. If you prefer to exploit the flow, the second half is where this should crack open. Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.20 is mispriced given both teams’ pronounced late-action profiles. A first-half draw at 2.10 also rates as value given both post 56% HT draws in this split.</p> <p>Further down the card, the “Second Half Winner – Sutjeska” at 2.30 aligns with their late dominance and Mornar’s away fade. For a prop, “Team to score last – Sutjeska” at 1.74 fits both clubs’ trends and the expected game state with the leaders finishing stronger.</p> <h3>Intangibles and Conditions</h3> <p>Cold, damp conditions may initially slow tempo, supporting a cautious first half. As legs tire and benches come into play, the match should open up—tilting to Sutjeska’s superior depth and set-piece threat. Crowd energy at Nikšić often spikes after the hour, another nudge toward late home pressure.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Sutjeska should reassert their authority atop the table. Mornar’s season remains an excellent story, but their away profile is not yet ready to upset the league leaders on their turf. Expect a tight opening, then the hosts to tilt the pitch after the interval.</p> <p><strong>Prediction:</strong> Sutjeska 2–0 or 2–1, with the decisive moments after half-time.</p> </div>