Bohemians vs Waterford

<div> <h2>Bohemians vs Waterford: Form, numbers and where the value lies</h2> <p>Bohemians host Waterford at Dalymount Park on Friday night with a top-three berth to protect and a home record that has quietly become one of the league’s most reliable. Waterford, marooned in mid-table, arrive on a run of four without a win and an attack that too often flatlines away from home.</p> <h3>Why Bohemians are rightful favourites</h3> <p>At Dalymount, Bohs take 1.87 points per game and concede just 0.93 on average, numbers that underpin a 60% home win rate. Their lead-defending is elite too: when they get in front here, they protect it 82% of the time. By contrast, Waterford’s away profile is frail: 1.13 PPG, 1.73 GA, and a meagre 11% equalising rate when falling behind. That combination sets a clear template—Bohs don’t give you many second chances once they strike first.</p> <h3>The totals picture: Expect control, not chaos</h3> <p>Although Bohemians were involved in a 3-4 thriller against Derry last time out, their home season has been defined by control. Only 13% of their home matches have gone over 3.5, and eight of their nine home wins finished under that mark. Waterford’s away matches trend lower than their overall too, with over 3.5 at 27%. Books look a shade heavy on “overs,” which is why Home & Under 3.5 stands out at 2.30.</p> <h3>Second-half tilt: Bohs rise, Waterford sink</h3> <p>This match has a pronounced second-half bias. Bohemians score 61% of their home goals after the interval and have a strong late push (seven goals between 76–90, just one conceded). Waterford concede 58% of their goals in the second half and have shipped 14 in the final quarter-hour overall. The 2nd half to be the highest-scoring half at 1.90 follows the data.</p> <h3>Will Waterford score?</h3> <p>That’s the key question for side markets. Two independent indicators point the same way: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 47% of home matches; Waterford fail to score in 47% of away games. Add Waterford’s away PPG of 0.00 when conceding first and a tiny 11% equalising rate, and the “Home clean sheet” at 2.10 and “BTTS No” at 1.90 both carry value.</p> <h3>Individuals to watch</h3> <p>Dawson Devoy and Ross Tierney supply the craft for Bohs, while Dayle Rooney’s service has been consistently dangerous. The in-form finisher is Douglas James-Taylor, who netted twice against Derry and has been buzzing around the six-yard box for weeks. At 1.91, his anytime price is playable against a Waterford defence that has struggled across time segments, particularly late. For Waterford, Pádraig Amond is the obvious threat (11 league goals), but the away FTS rate and loss of Matthew Smith chip away at their attacking ceiling.</p> <h3>Context and sentiment</h3> <p>Bohemians sit 3rd and are on course for Europe; Waterford are 7th and in need of a spark. The mood around Dalymount is confident—continuity in coaching, a stable XI, and a clear playing identity. Waterford’s sentiment is more subdued, with fans fretting over thin attacking depth and recent slump. The weather is set fair—no edge there—so tactics and quality should decide it.</p> <h3>Best bets summary</h3> <ul> <li>Bohemians & Under 3.5 (2.30): 8 of Bohs’ 9 home wins were under 3.5.</li> <li>Bohemians clean sheet (2.10): 47% Bohs CS at home vs 47% Waterford away FTS.</li> <li>2nd half highest scoring (1.90): Bohs surge late; Waterford concede late.</li> <li>BTTS No (1.90): Bohs home BTTS just 33%.</li> <li>Anytime Douglas James-Taylor (1.91): Form striker against porous late-game defence.</li> </ul> <h3>The verdict</h3> <p>Bohs to win in a controlled fashion still looks the most likely script. The data leans to a 2-0 or 2-1 type, with late insurance far more probable than early fireworks. If you like a scoreline, 2-0 at 6.25 aligns with the venue splits and Waterford’s away scoring issues.</p> </div>