Ekranas vs Be1 NFA

<div> <h2>Ekranas vs Be1 NFA: Relegation battle with value on the visitors not to lose</h2> <p>Two struggling sides meet in Panevėžys on Sunday, but the numbers behind their trajectories aren’t equal. Ekranas have slumped badly across the past two months, while Be1 NFA have quietly sharpened up away from home. The market edges Ekranas as a narrow favorite, yet the data unearthed here tilts toward Be1 avoiding defeat and a low home scoring output.</p> <h3>Form and momentum</h3> <p>Ekranas’ season averages are poor (0.73 PPG, 0.87 GF, 1.87 GA), but the last-eight-match trend is worse: 0.50 PPG, just 0.50 goals scored per game, and 2.25 conceded. They’re winless in six and have failed to score in three straight. By contrast, Be1’s last eight show a clear improvement: 1.38 PPG (up 58.6% on season average), goals for up to 1.38 and goals against trimmed to 1.38. The form table across the last eight places Be1 7th, Ekranas 14th.</p> <h3>Venue split and matchup dynamics</h3> <p>The venue split reinforces the angle. Ekranas at home average just 1.00 goals for and 1.29 against, delivering only 0.71 PPG. Be1’s stronger split is away from home (1.13 PPG), with some recent solid road results and the capacity to score in key moments. Ekranas also struggle to protect leads (home lead-defending rate 50%) and are poor at chasing from behind (overall equalizing rate just 17%). If they concede first, they rarely retrieve a result (0.11 PPG when conceding first).</p> <h3>Goal timing and second-half angles</h3> <p>Expect the game to open up more after the break. Ekranas concede heavily in the second half (68% of goals against), with the average concession arriving on 54 minutes. Be1’s average goal time (51’) aligns with this pattern, and their away scoring curve has meaningful late contributions. This supports a second-half goals play even in a generally low-scoring match-up.</p> <h3>Tactical notes and set-pieces</h3> <p>While player stat granularity is limited, recent match logs show Be1’s Domantas Šluta on penalties. Be1’s goals are relatively distributed, which fits their improved away returns. Ekranas’ issues are structural: a blunt attack, a low equalizing rate when behind, and late-game defensive leaks. With no significant injuries reported for either side and both managers expected to stick to their typical shapes, the tactical picture likely mirrors season-long tendencies—Ekranas cautious at home but short of punch; Be1 compact and opportunistic on transitions and dead balls.</p> <h3>Odds and value</h3> <p>Bookmakers price Ekranas around 1.95 to win, draw 3.55, and Be1 3.15. Given Ekranas’ attacking collapse and Be1’s upswing, the value leans away from a home win. The data strongly underpins Ekranas Under 1.5 Team Goals at 1.91—season home GF at 1.00 and last-eight GF at 0.50 paint a clear picture. The Double Chance (Draw/Be1) at 1.72 also stands out, protecting against a low-scoring stalemate while backing the side with the stronger away split and better recent form. For totals, the best edge lies in the second half: Over 1.5 (2H) at 1.82, aligned with Ekranas’ late concessions.</p> <h3>Prop and correct score consideration</h3> <p>Given the conservative scoring profiles and high first-half draw tendencies (Ekranas home HT draws 57%; Be1 HT draws 53%), a 1-1 correct score at 5.30 is a sensible long shot. It hedges a scenario where Ekranas finally break their scoring drought but still fail to outstrip Be1.</p> <h3>Weather and context</h3> <p>Cool, cloudy conditions shouldn’t materially affect play. With both teams focused on survival and no major absences reported, expect a tight, attritional contest. The model here prioritizes fading the market’s slight preference for the home side and backing Be1’s upward curve—particularly via angles that avoid all-or-nothing outcomes.</p> <h3>Best bets summary</h3> <ul> <li>Ekranas Under 1.5 Team Goals (1.91) – strongest statistical alignment.</li> <li>Draw or Be1 Double Chance (1.72) – away form and momentum advantage.</li> <li>Second Half Over 1.5 Goals (1.82) – Ekranas’ late-game defensive profile.</li> <li>Half-Time Draw (2.33) – high HT draw rates for both.</li> <li>BTTS No (2.25) – Ekranas’ high FTS and drought.</li> </ul> <p>In short: oppose a multi-goal Ekranas output and protect against a home win. The data says the visitors can leave Panevėžys with something.</p> </div>