Dainava vs Šiauliai

<div> <h2>Dainava vs Šiauliai: Form, Edges and Where the Value Lies</h2> <p>Date: 19 September 2025 | Venue: Dainavos pagrindinės mokyklos stadionas, Alytus | Kick-off: 16:30 UTC</p> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>Šiauliai arrive in Alytus sitting fourth and pushing for European places, while bottom-placed Dainava are hunting any lifeline to escape the relegation mire. No major injuries were reported in the lead-up, and lineups are expected close to kickoff. Market prices have Šiauliai as deserved road favorites.</p> <h3>Venue Split: The Key Edge</h3> <p>Few splits are as stark as this: Dainava’s home points-per-game sits at 0.46 with 69% losses, while Šiauliai average 1.43 points away with 43% wins. Dainava concede 2.31 per game at home and have an alarming 14% lead-defending rate at this venue. By contrast, Šiauliai protect away leads 75% of the time. In a league where margins are often thin, this is a decisive advantage.</p> <h3>Current Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Across the last eight, Šiauliai are fifth in the form table (11 pts), Dainava ninth (6 pts). Dainava have improved slightly on their season baseline, but their defensive metrics barely move. Šiauliai’s recent away win at Džiugas (3–1) showcased their transition and set-piece threat, even if a home loss to Hegelmann followed. Head-to-head favors the visitors too: Šiauliai beat Dainava 3–1 on July 28.</p> <h3>Goal Timing & Tactical Flow</h3> <p>The late-game trend is unmistakable. Dainava’s home goals against are 60% in the second half, with eight conceded in the 76–90 window. Šiauliai score late (10 goals overall in the final quarter-hour) and can dial up pressure after the interval. Expect Šiauliai to grow into the game, with the second period likeliest to produce their breakthrough or the cushion.</p> <h3>Situational Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>When conceding first: Šiauliai collect 0.93 PPG vs Dainava’s 0.29 — better in adversity.</li> <li>Equalizing/defending: Šiauliai equalizing rate 53%; Dainava equalizing rate just 22% (home 18%).</li> <li>Time splits: Dainava home trailing 41% of minutes; Šiauliai away spend 44% level, 21% leading — a strong platform.</li> </ul> <h3>Players and Match-Ups</h3> <p>For Šiauliai, recent form has come from Eligijus Jankauskas and Milan Đokić, supported by strong wide service and pressure on second balls. Dainava’s creative focal points are Artem Baftalovskyi and Marko Pavlovski, with Oostenbrink patrolling midfield (48 interceptions), but discipline (7 yellows) and defensive strain are concerns. In goal, Dainava have alternated between Ernestas Mickevičius and Volodymyr Krynskyi, both facing heavy shot volumes.</p> <h3>Where the Odds Look Soft</h3> <p>The straight away win at 1.98 looks fair-to-generous given the venue split. The combo Away & Under 3.5 at 2.79 captures Šiauliai’s away total profile (2.43 avg) and Dainava’s tendency to lose without blowouts. BTTS No at 2.01 is quietly appealing: Dainava fail to score in 46% of home matches, while Šiauliai fail to score in 43% away — at least one blank is a real runner.</p> <h3>Recommended Bets</h3> <ul> <li>Šiauliai to win (1.98) — strong venue and defensive control metrics.</li> <li>Šiauliai & Under 3.5 (2.79) — blends away control with realistic total ceiling.</li> <li>BTTS No (2.01) — both sides have high fail-to-score rates.</li> <li>Šiauliai Over 0.5 goals in 2nd Half (1.59) — fits Dainava’s late concessions and Šiauliai’s late scoring.</li> </ul> <h3>Scoreline and Final Word</h3> <p>Expect Šiauliai to manage the game, press efficiently, and exploit Dainava’s late-game fragility. A controlled 0–2 fits the performance patterns and price (9.10) for those chasing a longshot. The safest angle remains the away win, with second-half markets offering additional value.</p> </div>