Suduva Marijampole vs Šiauliai
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<html> <head><title>Sūduva vs Šiauliai: Tight margins in Marijampolė</title></head> <body> <h2>Form and Context</h2> <p>Fourth-placed Sūduva welcome fifth-placed Šiauliai with European positioning at stake. Sūduva arrive on an unbeaten run of four league matches, including back-to-back home wins (2-1 vs Dainava, 1-0 vs Kauno Žalgiris). The profile is increasingly pragmatic: across the last eight, Sūduva’s scoring has dipped (0.88 goals per game) while their goals against have improved (0.75), pointing to controlled, low-event football.</p> <p>Šiauliai travel on a three-match losing streak (1-3 at Kauno Žalgiris, 1-3 vs Banga, 0-1 at Žalgiris) and a four-game winless run. While their season-long numbers can be volatile—particularly at home—away matches settle into a more restrained rhythm: 2.47 total goals per game, and a worrying 41% failed-to-score rate.</p> <h2>Venue Dynamics</h2> <p>The Marijampolė venue trends matter in A Lyga. Sūduva’s home PPG (1.94) and defensive baseline (0.82 GA per game, 47% clean sheets) are clearly superior to Šiauliai’s away PPG (1.35) and chance construction. The hosts’ lead-defending is robust (75% at home), accentuating the importance of the first goal. Notably, Šiauliai’s opponents score first 65% of the time away, a structural problem for an away side that struggles when trailing.</p> <h2>Tactical Matchup</h2> <p>Sūduva’s approach in recent weeks has been compact and risk-averse. They concede space in harmless zones, attack more selectively after the interval, and have been effective at game management in one-score games. The goal timing maps show a late Sūduva push (7 goals, 1 conceded from 76–90 at home), a pattern that has produced late winners and insurance goals. Šiauliai, for their part, do enjoy late flurries away (6 goals 76–90), but their larger issue is reaching those states in contention: they are behind at halftime away in 41% of trips and have a low away “team scored first” rate (29%).</p> <h2>Goal Expectation and Markets</h2> <p>Total goals lean under. Sūduva home matches average just 2.29, and the last two home games finished 2-1 and 1-0. Šiauliai’s away slate is 2.47 goals on average—middling—but their away “both teams scored” hits only 41%. The intersection of Sūduva’s strong home clean sheet rate (47%) and Šiauliai’s away FTS (41%) makes BTTS No and Home clean sheet the sharp angles. Weather in Marijampolė is set to be cool and possibly slick (6–8°C, light winds), conditions that typically do not inflate totals in Lithuania’s autumn.</p> <h2>Key Players to Watch</h2> <p>Sūduva have spread goals among midfield runners and late substitutes lately—Amar Haïdara and Henry Uzochukwu both struck in the recent 2-1 win, and “Lucky Tom” delivered an 85th-minute winner against Kauno Žalgiris. Šiauliai’s Eligijus Jankauskas remains their most likely threat (goals in recent fixtures), but away finishing reliability has been inconsistent, underlined by those shutouts on the road.</p> <h2>Probability Picture</h2> <ul> <li>Home win: moderate edge (Sūduva 53% home win rate vs Šiauliai’s 47% away loss rate), strengthened by current trajectories.</li> <li>Under 2.5: supported by Sūduva’s last-eight goal environment (1.63 combined GF+GA) and their season-long unders lean.</li> <li>BTTS No: blended likelihood around the low-50s percentage, priced as a near coin-flip—value lies with the “No”.</li> <li>Clean sheet – Home: the standout edge, with strong alignment of venue split and away scoring anemia.</li> </ul> <h2>Scoreline Projection</h2> <p>The Oracle projects a cagey clash, with Sūduva’s organization and game-state control deciding margins. The modal outcomes are 1-0 or 2-0 to the hosts, with 2-1 as a thinner tail if Šiauliai nick a transition goal. The 1-0 at 7.50 reflects both Sūduva’s most frequent home winning scoreline and Šiauliai’s away distribution, offering an attractive long-shot that aligns with the broader thesis.</p> <h2>Verdict</h2> <p>Back Sūduva to keep a clean sheet at 2.38 as the primary value. Complement with Under 2.5 at 2.00 and BTTS No at 1.95. For those seeking plus-money ladders, consider Result/Under combos or the 1-0 correct score at 7.50. The data profile, form lines, and venue dynamics all tilt this into Sūduva’s low-scoring wheelhouse.</p> </body> </html>
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