Radomlje vs Olimpija Ljubljana
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<html> <head><title>Radomlje vs Olimpija Ljubljana – Data-Led Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Radomlje vs Olimpija Ljubljana: Form, Numbers and Where the Value Lies</h2> <p>Date: 13 September 2025 | Venue: Športni Park Radomlje</p> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>Olimpija Ljubljana arrive as early-season contenders again, while Radomlje seek stability after a difficult 2024/25 and a mixed start to this campaign. The table and form guide line up: Olimpija sit fourth with 13 points from seven, Radomlje seventh with nine. With favorable weather and no major injury clouds, both managers should field near-strongest elevens.</p> <h3>What the Numbers Say</h3> <p>The clearest split is venue-based: Radomlje at home concede 2.25 goals per game, while Olimpija away score 2.33 and allow just 0.67. Olimpija have not trailed away (timeTrailingPercent 0%) and have scored first in 100% of away outings. Radomlje’s broader profile is volatile: six of their seven matches have gone over 1.5 and five of seven over 2.5, with a hefty 3.71 total goals per game.</p> <p>Timing trends reinforce a late-action angle. Radomlje concede 59% of their goals after halftime, including four in the 76–90 window; Olimpija concede 80% of their total goals after the break. Expect the second half to be livelier than the first.</p> <h3>Recent Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Radomlje’s last two results—1-5 at Maribor and 0-6 at home to Bravo—underscore defensive fragility. Before that, they beat Primorje 3-1 and won 2-1 away at Koper, indicating they can punch back but struggle to control defensive phases. Olimpija’s recent run is steadier: an away draw at Primorje, then a statement 1-0 against Maribor. Despite a 0-5 home shock to Celje earlier, their away record remains unbeaten (W2, D1).</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies</h3> <p>Radomlje are likely to pack midfield in a 4-5-1 to congest central spaces and deny early depth runs. Their home scoring distribution skews to the second half (67% of home goals after the break), suggesting they may target late surges and set-piece moments. Olimpija, with Durdov as a reference and runners like Marin and Pinto supplying thrust and final-third quality, have started fast on the road (early goals at Aluminij; control phases at Domžale), then manage the game with a disciplined back line that has traveled well.</p> <h3>Where the Betting Value Sits</h3> <ul> <li>Over 2.5 Goals (1.80): Radomlje’s games are high-event (71% over 2.5 overall; 75% at home). Olimpija away are 67% over 2.5.</li> <li>Olimpija Win (1.55): Away PPG 2.33, scored first 100% away, and Radomlje’s defensive trend is negative (11 conceded in last two).</li> <li>Second Half Over 1.5 (2.00): Both teams skew to heavier second halves—Radomlje’s late concessions and Olimpija’s post-HT concession share point to goals after the interval.</li> <li>Olimpija Over 1.5 Team Goals (1.67): Matches the 2.33 GF away and Radomlje’s 2.25 GA at home.</li> <li>Correct Score 1-3 (13.00): Mirrors prior Olimpija away wins (1-3, 0-3) and Radomlje’s susceptibility, with a price that rewards the risk.</li> </ul> <h3>Intangibles and Sentiment</h3> <p>Olimpija’s locker room confidence is high; supporters expect them to push for the title again. Last season’s 5-0 head-to-head win over Radomlje adds psychological weight. Radomlje’s focus will be damage limitation early and targeted bursts late; a draw would be a strong outcome, but the data leans against them if they concede first.</p> <h3>Projected Flow</h3> <p>Expect Olimpija to assert early and create first-half edges, but the more open, higher-variance period comes after halftime, when both sides historically allow more chances. If Radomlje hold to the break, the game could break open with transitions and set pieces in the final half-hour.</p> <h3>Best Bet Summary</h3> <p>Over 2.5 goals is the strongest angle at 1.80, supported by robust venue and timing splits. Olimpija to win pairs well, and combining those views points to multi-goal away output, with the second half providing the most fertile window for goals.</p> </body> </html>
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