Primorje vs Celje
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<html> <head> <title>Primorje vs Celje – Statistical Preview, Odds & Value Angles</title> </head> <body> <h2>Primorje vs Celje: Can the leaders overpower the hosts in Ajdovščina?</h2> <p>Runaway league leaders Celje head to Ajdovščina to face a Primorje side that has shown flashes of threat at home but continues to leak goals. With both teams enjoying a full week’s rest since 14 September, this has the makings of a high-tempo clash, particularly after half-time.</p> <h3>Form and Venue Split</h3> <p>Primorje’s home profile is competitive on the surface: 1.40 points per game with 1.80 goals scored and conceded per match. They’ve netted in four of five at home, including a 4-1 win over Aluminij. However, they have yet to register a clean sheet this season and concede first 80% of the time at home.</p> <p>Celje’s away numbers are outstanding: 2.60 points per game, 3.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded. They are unbeaten away and every away match has gone over 2.5 goals (five out of five). Their lead-defending rate is a perfect 100% and they also have a 100% equalizing rate—underlining both control when ahead and resilience when behind.</p> <h3>Second-Half Surge vs Late Fragility</h3> <p>This match’s critical dynamic is the second half. Celje’s second-half production is elite: 16 scored and only 2 conceded overall, with 12 scored and 2 conceded in away second halves. Primorje, meanwhile, concede heavily late—six goals allowed between minutes 76–90 overall, including four at home in that same period. This directly supports markets like “Second Half Winner – Celje” and “Second Half Over 1.5 Goals.”</p> <h3>Momentum and Sequences</h3> <p>Celje have scored at least twice in all eight league matches and at least twice in all five away games; they’ve hit 3+ in four of those five. Their total-goals profile away from home sits at 4.80 per match. Primorje’s home games average 3.60 total goals, and their BTTS rate at home is 80%, so even if Celje dominate, the hosts often contribute to the scoreboard.</p> <h3>Situational Edges</h3> <p>Celje’s ppg when conceding first is 2.33 and their equalizing rate stands at 100%—they regularly overturn deficits. Primorje spend only 12% of their home minutes leading and 27% trailing; losing at half-time in 80% of home matches is a concern against a side with Celje’s attacking depth.</p> <h3>Players and Tactical Notes</h3> <p>Celje’s attacking rotation is deep. Matej Poplatnik has struck key goals lately, while Nikita Iosifov and Mario Kvesić (goals and assists in Europe) add creativity and end product. Full-backs like Juanjo Nieto and Žan Karničnik provide width and progressive carries, sustaining pressure into the second half.</p> <p>Primorje’s main threats include Roger Murillo and Matic Zavnik—both on the scoresheet recently—suggesting they can trouble Celje, especially in transition and early second-half bursts (Primorje’s 46–60’ GF at home is strong). But defensive lapses, particularly late, remain the Achilles heel.</p> <h3>Odds, Value and Where the Numbers Point</h3> <ul> <li>Second Half Winner – Celje at 1.53: backed by Celje’s late dominance (76–90’ GF 7, GA 0) and Primorje’s late concessions (GA 6).</li> <li>Celje Over 2.5 Team Goals at 1.94: 3+ in 4/5 away vs a host with 0 clean sheets—clear value against the implied probability.</li> <li>Celje & Over 2.5 at 1.69: aligns with Celje’s away win-rate and the ubiquitous away overs.</li> <li>Over 3.5 at 1.98: Celje’s away totals (4.80 per game) and Primorje’s home totals (3.60) push this towards a goal-rich encounter.</li> </ul> <h3>Risk Flags</h3> <p>It remains early-season (eight matches), so extreme splits can regress. Celje’s recent 3-3 at Koper shows they can be caught cold before rallying. That said, their equalizing and lead-protection metrics mitigate some of this risk.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Celje should control the key phases, especially after the interval. Primorje’s home attack can land a punch, but the visitors’ firepower and late-game authority are likely decisive.</p> <p><strong>Predicted range:</strong> Celje 3–1 or 3–2.</p> </body> </html>
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