Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
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<html> <head><title>Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Match Preview & Betting Guide</title></head> <body> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Maccabi Bnei Raina return to Green Stadium/Nof Hagalil under heavy pressure. The hosts sit bottom with just 4 points from 15, carrying the league’s weakest home profile: 0-1-7 at home (0.13 PPG), scoring 0.75 and conceding 2.88 per game. The form table over the last eight shows marginal improvement in points per game (0.38) but still a negative trend with seven losses in the last eight and three straight defeats.</p> <p>Ironi Kiryat Shmona aren’t flying, but they’re materially stronger. They’re 12th with 13 points and trend to more open contests away: 1.14 GF and 2.00 GA per away game, with 71% Over 2.5 and a striking 86% BTTS rate on the road. Over the last eight, their defense has taken a step back (2.13 GA), but they continue to find goals in most matches.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Expect an attritional first phase that opens up after halftime. Bnei Raina leak late: 70% of home goals conceded come after the break, including a remarkable 10 conceded between minutes 76-90. Their lead-defending rate at home is 0% and they rarely equalize when behind. That brittle game-state management invites pressure as legs tire and lines stretch.</p> <p>Kiryat Shmona’s away goal timing aligns well to exploit that pattern. They score early with punch (3 away goals in 0-15) but also carry a second-half bias overall (59% of total goals scored after HT). The visitors’ wing threats and Ugarriza’s penalty-box presence should trouble a defense that allows volume and quality centrally late on.</p> <h3>Key Players</h3> <ul> <li>Adrián Ugarriza (Kiryat Shmona): 4 league goals, focal target who thrives on crosses and rebounds; a live anytime scorer candidate.</li> <li>Cristian Jesús Martínez (Kiryat Shmona): Progressive carrier, draws fouls and links zones; useful against a tiring midfield.</li> <li>Bnei Raina’s back line: Stevanović/Pius/Jaber and company have struggled against aerial and late-arriving threats. Their inability to protect leads (home lead-defending rate 0%) is a recurring theme.</li> </ul> <h3>Injuries, News and Conditions</h3> <p>No fresh major absences reported for Bnei Raina in recent previews. For Kiryat Shmona, forward Jardel is reportedly out (2 goals this season), trimming depth up front but leaving Ugarriza and Mordechai to carry the load. December conditions in Nof Hagalil are typically cool with a chance of light rain; a slick surface would likely increase transition chances, favoring the more direct side in Kiryat Shmona.</p> <h3>Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Bnei Raina home: Over 2.5 in 75%, Over 3.5 in 62%.</li> <li>Kiryat Shmona away: Over 2.5 in 71%, BTTS in 86%.</li> <li>Total goals: Bnei Raina home 3.63 per game; Kiryat Shmona away 3.14 per game.</li> <li>Late goals: Bnei Raina concede 10 goals at 76-90 at home; second half is usually decisive.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value View</h3> <p>The market shows Kiryat Shmona as slight favorites (2.16), with Draw at 3.25 and Bnei Raina at 3.15. The Oracle sees better value in goals markets: Over 2.5 at 1.90 is priced for a coin-flip (52.6%) when venue splits suggest a ~70% expectation. Secondary value sits with Kiryat Shmona Draw No Bet at 1.60, aligning with Bnei Raina’s catastrophic home metrics and inability to protect or chase a game.</p> <p>For those seeking plus-money, Kiryat Shmona Over 1.5 Team Goals at 2.10 dovetails with Bnei Raina’s 2.88 home GA and severe late-game collapses. Highest Scoring Half: Second Half at 2.00 also grades well given both sides’ late-goal profiles.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Everything points to a game that escalates after halftime, with Kiryat Shmona having the cleaner routes to goals and points. The Oracle’s card is headlined by Over 2.5, backed by away DNB protection, and a sprinkle on Kiryat Shmona’s team goals. For a longshot, 1-2 fits the underlying story.</p> <h4>The Oracle’s Best Bets</h4> <ol> <li>Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90</li> <li>Kiryat Shmona DNB (+0) @ 1.60</li> <li>Kiryat Shmona Team Total Over 1.5 @ 2.10</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half @ 2.00</li> <li>Correct Score: Kiryat Shmona 2-1 @ 7.00</li> </ol> </body> </html>
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