Liverpool vs Everton

<div> <h2>Merseyside Derby Preview: Liverpool vs Everton</h2> <p>Saturday, 20 September 2025, 12:30 BST — Anfield</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Liverpool arrive perfect through four, top of the table with 12 points and +7 goal difference. Everton’s start is quietly competent (W2 D1 L1), good for sixth, but the gap in ceiling is clear. Sentiment mirrors the table: Liverpool’s fanbase is buoyant, with Klopp’s side pressing crisply and finishing late; Everton supporters are encouraged by structure and new creativity, tempered by realism about Anfield.</p> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>Liverpool’s 4-2-3-1 looks fluid: Alisson; Frimpong–Konaté–van Dijk–Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister (doubt); Wirtz and Gakpo supplying Salah and Ekitike. The Reds’ tell is their second-half surge: 78% of goals after the break and five in the 76–90’ window. That pairs ominously with Everton’s tendency to concede late away (two allowed in 76–90) and an average conceded-first minute of 84’.</p> <p>Everton likely go compact 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 out of possession: Pickford; O’Brien, Keane, Tarkowski, (Garner at RB possible); Iroegbunam, Gueye; Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish; Beto. With Branthwaite out and Mykolenko doubtful, the Toffees lean on Tarkowski/Keane’s box defense and Grealish/Dewsbury-Hall to connect counters. Ndiaye’s form (2 goals) offers the vertical outlet. But the away lead-defending rate (50%) is a concern against Liverpool’s late wave and bench impact.</p> <h3>Key Match-Ups</h3> <ul> <li>Salah vs Keane/Tarkowski: Salah has 2G/1A and penalty equity; Everton’s CBs excel aerially, but Salah’s diagonal runs and Liverpool’s overloads are the issue.</li> <li>Wirtz/Gakpo between the lines vs Gueye/Iroegbunam: Everton’s double pivot must track third-man runs; any lapse invites Liverpool’s late-period pressure.</li> <li>Set Plays: van Dijk/Konaté vs Everton’s zonal. Liverpool’s delivery threatens; Everton strong in the air but susceptible to second balls.</li> </ul> <h3>Data Signals and Betting Angles</h3> <p>The match projects to tilt late. Liverpool haven’t trailed all season and have scored first in 100% of matches, but their average first goal arrives on 61’. Everton away score early (average scoring minute 32) yet concede late. That dynamic backs “Liverpool to win the 2nd half” and “2nd half most goals.”</p> <p>Totals are trickier: Liverpool’s matches average 3.25 goals; Everton’s overall 2.00 (away 3.00). Over 2.5 at 1.62 is reasonable; Under 3.5 at 1.50 is short. If combining outcomes, “Liverpool & Over 1.5” offers 1.67, but derby variance and Liverpool’s capacity for a 1-0 (as vs Arsenal) add caution.</p> <h3>Player Focus</h3> <p>Salah is the clearest anytime scorer at 2.05, supported by production and late-game trend lines. Ekitike (2.25) is a fair alternative. On the blue side, Grealish (4 assists) has elevated Everton’s final-third quality, but shot volume from Beto (4 attempts in 4 league games) is thin for Anfield expectations.</p> <h3>Injuries and Rotation Watch</h3> <p>Liverpool: Mac Allister/Jones are doubts; Isak’s debut minutes are possible and would only deepen Liverpool’s late threat profile. Everton: Branthwaite out; Mykolenko doubtful—both are defensive downgrades, especially under sustained pressure.</p> <h3>Projected Outcome</h3> <p>Liverpool should edge the derby with control and a heavy late tilt. Everton’s improved structure could keep it cagey early—supporting HT draw angles—before Liverpool’s bench and territorial squeeze tell after the hour.</p> <h3>Best Bets Recap</h3> <ul> <li>Second Half Winner – Liverpool (1.73): Reds’ late dominance meets Everton’s late concessions.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half (2.00): Both teams’ timing patterns converge on a livelier finish.</li> <li>HT/FT Draw/Liverpool (4.33): LFC 50% HT draws + 100% FT wins so far; Everton HT resilience.</li> <li>Salah Anytime (2.05): Primary goal route with penalty upside.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Verdict:</strong> Liverpool 2-0 (longshot exact score at 6.50), with decisive moments after half-time.</p> </div>