Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

<h2>Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: Anfield data points to a controlled home win</h2> <p>Liverpool welcome Nottingham Forest to Anfield with the market and the metrics aligned: the hosts are clear favourites. The Oracle’s read is that home strength plus Forest’s travel woes should translate to a multi-goal Liverpool performance with a realistic chance of a clean sheet.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>Arne Slot’s side have been inconsistent away but remain robust at Anfield: 80% home win rate, 2.0 goals for and just 1.0 against per game. Nottingham Forest, still battling injuries, arrive with 0.40 points per away match and 0.40 away goals per game, failing to score in 60% of their road fixtures. A late lift in results (win vs Leeds, draw vs Manchester United) came at home; the away profile remains poor.</p> <h3>Tactical shapes and matchups</h3> <p>Liverpool’s front rotation should still feature Mohamed Salah as the primary end-product outlet, with Cody Gakpo, Hugo Ekitike or Alexander Isak combining centrally depending on fitness and rotation. Dominik Szoboszlai and Ryan Gravenberch provide ball-carrying and vertical passing lanes, while fullbacks (Kerkez/Bradley) push to trap Forest in a low block.</p> <p>Forest under a pragmatic approach will likely sit deep and counter via Morgan Gibbs-White’s link play and Dan Ndoye’s running. With creators and scorers reportedly missing (Hudson-Odoi, Wood, Douglas Luiz among others), transitions lack punch, putting heavy onus on MGW and Hutchinson. Set-pieces could be Forest’s best route, but van Dijk/Konaté are typically dominant aerially.</p> <h3>Key statistical levers</h3> <ul> <li>First-goal dynamic: Liverpool score first in 80% at home; Forest concede first in 80% away. Liverpool average 3.0 PPG when scoring first.</li> <li>Second-half trend: Liverpool score 67% of their goals after the break; Forest concede 60% of theirs in second halves, with an alarming 8 goals conceded in the 76–90’ window.</li> <li>BTTS profile: Forest have failed to score in 60% away; Liverpool have 40% home clean sheets. The away side’s chance creation is the limiting factor.</li> <li>Totals picture: Liverpool home Over 3.5 just 20%; Forest away Over 3.5 at 0%. Scorelines cluster around 2-0/3-0.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and value</h3> <p>The straight home win is just 1.40, fair but thin. Better constructions emerge:</p> <ul> <li>Liverpool -1 (AH) at 1.65: protects the 1-goal win (push) and captures the common 2-0/3-1 patterns.</li> <li>Result/Under 3.5 at 2.40: reflects the 2-0/3-0 sweet spot and Forest’s low away goal threat.</li> <li>BTTS No at 2.10: aligned with Forest’s 60% away fail-to-score rate.</li> <li>Second-half winner: Liverpool at 1.67: matches both teams’ goal timing profiles.</li> <li>Mohamed Salah anytime 2.00: penalty duty, shot volume, and Forest’s defensive record combine for plus EV if he starts.</li> </ul> <h3>Personnel and selection watch</h3> <p>Liverpool’s goalkeeping situation (Alisson unavailable per reports) is the main counterpoint to a clean sheet. However, Forest’s injuries strip much of their finishing and creative depth. For Liverpool, any combination of Salah with Isak/Ekitike/Gakpo keeps the expected goals baseline high; Chiesa offers impact minutes if he doesn’t start. Szoboszlai’s set-piece quality and switches to isolated wingers should pin Forest back.</p> <h3>Weather and tempo</h3> <p>Cool, damp conditions with possible light rain suit a territorial Liverpool performance: aggressive counter-pressing, sustained pressure, and set-piece opportunities. Forest’s best hope is a slow, stop-start rhythm and long clearances for territory, but Anfield tends to accelerate games rather than slow them.</p> <h3>Projection and recommended angles</h3> <p>The Oracle’s base projection centers around Liverpool 2.1–2.3 xG vs Forest 0.5–0.7 xG. Most-likely scores: 2-0, 3-0, 2-1. That’s why the recommended staking focuses on Liverpool -1 (AH), Liverpool & Under 3.5, BTTS No, and a second-half Liverpool lean. For a player angle, Salah anytime at evens remains the cleanest way to ride Liverpool’s end-product in a favourable matchup.</p> <p><strong>Verdict:</strong> Liverpool to control and win with headroom; Forest’s depleted attack limits their scoring probability. Best prices lie in handicaps and home-win-with-unders combinations.</p>