Millwall vs West Brom

<div> <h2>Millwall vs West Brom: Data, Discipline and Margins at The Den</h2> <p>Millwall welcome West Bromwich Albion to The Den on Saturday with both clubs sitting mid-table and separated only by goal difference. Under the hood, though, their venue splits point in very different directions: Millwall have struggled badly at home, while West Brom have looked lively on their travels.</p> <h3>Team News and Selection Context</h3> <p>Millwall’s absentee list is significant: Alfie Doughty, Femi Azeez, Luke Cundle, Casper de Norre, Dan McNamara, Benicio Baker-Boaitey and goalkeeper Lukas Jensen are all listed as unavailable. That removes ball-carrying and chance creation from wide zones and set-piece quality. Expect more responsibility for Thierno Ballo, with Josh Coburn and Macaulay Langstaff tasked to finish the few openings that come their way.</p> <p>West Brom are also shorn of forwards Daryl Dike and Karlan Grant, thinning their striker pool. The Baggies should again lean into Isaac Price’s penalty-box timing and Mikey Johnston’s delivery, with Aune Heggebø the likely focal point. Coaching continuity under Ryan Mason and a clear blueprint remain positives despite recent late setbacks.</p> <h3>Patterns by Venue</h3> <p>Millwall have managed just 0.33 goals per home game, failing to score in two of three at The Den. They’ve conceded 1.67 per home game and the damage has come after half-time: zero goals scored in second halves at home but five conceded. By contrast, West Brom away are at 2.00 PPG with 1.67 GF and 1.33 GA; they’ve scored in every away outing and tend to add to games late (two goals from 76–90 on the road).</p> <h3>Key Match-Ups and Tactical Notes</h3> <p>West Brom are fast starters: they’ve scored first in 71% of matches (67% away) with an average first goal at minute 17. That dovetails awkwardly for Millwall, who’ve conceded first in 67% of home fixtures and have 0.00 PPG at home when conceding first. If West Brom break through early, Millwall’s shorthanded midfield may struggle to adjust.</p> <p>After the break, the game may open up. Millwall’s second-half defensive slump (all five home concessions after HT) contrasts with West Brom’s propensity to concede more late themselves. Expect the intensity and chances to rise in the final half-hour as fatigue hits thinned squads.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Isaac Price (WBA): Three league goals already, two away, and the most shots on target per match for the Baggies. His late-arrival runs suit a game in which West Brom should enjoy more territory.</li> <li>Mikey Johnston (WBA): One goal and three assists; key ball-progression and crossing, especially if Millwall defend narrow.</li> <li>Josh Coburn (MIL): Physical presence can turn long balls and set pieces into half-chances. If Millwall nick something, he’s a likely reference point.</li> </ul> <h3>What the Numbers Say</h3> <p>The lines give near pick’em on the 1x2 (2.60–3.30–2.60). However, the split metrics paint value on specific angles rather than the match winner: West Brom to score first at 2.05, away clean sheet at 3.00, and second half as the highest-scoring half at 2.00 all line up with venue trends and timing patterns.</p> <h3>Red Flags and Balance</h3> <p>Historically, Millwall have been a poor matchup for West Brom, unbeaten in their last eight meetings (2W, 6D). That tempering note is relevant in a low-sample early season. Moreover, West Brom’s lead-defending rate (50% overall) and zero points when conceding first suggest fragility if the Lions land the opening punch.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>With Millwall’s attack depleted and their home output minimal, the smarter wagers focus on West Brom-related props and game-state markets. The Baggies to score first is the standout; a draw-no-bet safety net on West Brom also appeals in a tight contest. Expect the second half to carry more event volume, with Isaac Price again profiling as the big moment player.</p> </div>