Ipswich vs Charlton

Championship - England Tuesday, October 21, 2025 at 06:45 PM Portman Road Scheduled

Match Information

Home Team: Ipswich
Away Team: Charlton
Competition: Championship
Country: England
Date & Time: Tuesday, October 21, 2025 at 06:45 PM
Venue: Portman Road

Match Preview

<html> <head><title>Ipswich Town vs Charlton Athletic – Championship Preview and Betting Analysis</title></head> <body> <h2>Form Guide</h2> <p>Ipswich Town return to Portman Road where they’ve been a force early in the campaign: 3 wins and 2 draws, 2.60 goals scored per game, and zero home defeats. The 2-1 reverse at Middlesbrough halted a five-game unbeaten run overall, but that result doesn’t dent the impressive home profile. Charlton arrive buoyed by a 2-1 victory over Sheffield Wednesday, but their away form is modest: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, and just 0.60 goals scored per game on the road.</p> <h2>Venue Dynamics</h2> <p>Portman Road is a real edge. Ipswich lead at halftime in 80% of their home matches and have scored first in 100%. They spend 54% of home minutes leading and only 4% trailing. That contrasts starkly with Charlton, who lead away only 9% of the time and are level a hefty 74%, often restricting chance counts but also conceding late.</p> <h2>Tactical Matchup</h2> <p>Kieran McKenna’s side emphasize fast wing transitions and aggressive early pressure. Jaden Philogene-Bidace and Jack Clarke drive one-on-ones and final-third entries, supported by Leif Davis’ overlaps. Ipswich’s average first goal at home comes around the 20-minute mark, reflecting quick starts. Charlton’s away defensive shape is compact through the middle, but they concede heavily in the final quarter-hour (76–90’ GA 4), which is a problematic match with Ipswich’s late surge (76–90’ GF 3 at home; 5 overall).</p> <h2>Key Players</h2> <ul> <li>Jaden Philogene-Bidace (Ipswich): 5 league goals, all at home, with diagonal drifts into the box that punish full-backs. A prime anytime scorer candidate.</li> <li>Jack Clarke (Ipswich): 4 goals and strong carry metrics; threat on counters and cutbacks.</li> <li>George Hirst (Ipswich): Central reference; occupies centre-backs, provides penalty-box presence.</li> <li>Sonny Carey (Charlton): 3 goals this season; late runs from midfield can exploit transitional spaces if Ipswich overcommit.</li> </ul> <h2>Game State and Goal Timing</h2> <p>The second half should open up. Ipswich generate 56% of their goals after the break, while Charlton concede 89% of their goals in the second half overall (away: 83%). Both teams show high activity in the final 15 minutes: Ipswich often add a kill-shot; Charlton tend to yield. This tilts the market toward second-half goalovers and supports late in-running entries if the first half is cagey.</p> <h2>Market Analysis and Value</h2> <p>The moneyline for Ipswich at 1.63 prices them around 61% implied; The Oracle rates the home win closer to 66–70% given the venue splits and early goal profile, presenting positive expected value. The first-half winner at 2.10 leans into Ipswich’s repeated pattern of quick starts. Team total over 1.5 at 1.77 aligns with a 2.60 GF home average and a 4-of-5 record of scoring at least twice. Second-half over 1.5 at 2.10 fits the mutual late-goal trend. For bigger price-seekers, Ipswich & Over 2.5 at 2.60 aligns with every Ipswich home win clearing 2.5 goals.</p> <h2>Risks and Contradictions</h2> <p>Ipswich’s lead-defending rate (50%) is below league average, creating BTTS risk despite home dominance. Charlton’s away matches skew under (1.80 total goals per game, only 20% over 2.5), which tempers enthusiasm for full-game overs. That’s why the sharper angles target Ipswich-centric outcomes (moneyline, team total) and second-half goal profiles rather than generic BTTS.</p> <h2>Team News and Sentiment</h2> <p>No major fresh injuries have been flagged for either side. McKenna’s continuity helps Ipswich’s tempo and patterns. Charlton’s Sonny Carey and Reece Burke arrive in confidence after their last win; however, sustaining that on the road against Ipswich’s aggressive wide play is a serious test.</p> <h2>Prediction</h2> <p>Ipswich to assert control early, carry a lead into halftime, and add a second after the break. Charlton’s best route is set-pieces and transitions through Carey or Olaofe, but the data leans home.</p> <p><strong>Predicted score:</strong> Ipswich 2-0 or 3-1.</p> </body> </html>

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