Ballymena United vs Dungannon Swifts

<div> <h2>Ballymena United vs Dungannon Swifts: Data Backs A Tight Home Win</h2> <p>Saturday’s Premiership clash at The Showgrounds brings contrasting venue trends into focus. Ballymena have banked a strong early-season home platform, while Dungannon’s away returns lag. With no headline absences reported and benign weather forecast, the numbers are likely to speak loudly.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Ballymena sit inside the league’s top five on merit after eight matches, tracking above league averages in points-per-game and defensive outcomes. Dungannon, meanwhile, are in the bottom third and still searching for consistency. A morale-boosting 2-1 home win over Cliftonville last time out proves they can spring an upset, but the road is a different test: 0.75 PPG away, 1.75 goals conceded per game, and a 50% away failed-to-score rate.</p> <h3>Key Venue Split: Control at The Showgrounds</h3> <p>Ballymena at home have been dependable: 2.00 PPG, 0.67 goals conceded per game, and a 67% clean sheet rate. They’ve also defended leads immaculately—100% lead-defending rate at home—suggesting that the first goal could be decisive. In contrast, Dungannon’s away equalizing rate sits at 0%, and their lead-defending rate on the road is just 50%.</p> <h3>The Second-Half Story</h3> <p>No trend is more striking than Dungannon’s second-half record: zero goals scored after the interval in eight matches, with eight conceded. Ballymena, who score a majority of their goals in the second half overall, have yet to concede a second-half goal at home. This underpins two angles—Ballymena to win the second half and Dungannon to fail to score—that emerge as value opportunities.</p> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>Expect Ballymena to lean on a compact 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 hybrid, using controlled possession and service from wide areas. Ben Kennedy’s dead-ball quality and Calvin McCurry’s movement provide the touchpoints, while Kian Corbally’s late runs add another layer. The Showgrounds pitch has suited their defensive organization, and the early data suggests they’re comfortable protecting slim advantages.</p> <p>Dungannon will likely hunt quick transitions and set-piece moments. Junior Ogedi-Uzokwe’s penalty v Cliftonville and Tom Maguire’s sharpness at Glenavon show they can strike early. But sustaining threat after the break has been a problem, and that hangover could be decisive here if they trail.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Ben Kennedy (Ballymena): set-piece threat and a reliable creator; also on penalties.</li> <li>Calvin McCurry (Ballymena): live runner who has scored in recent fixtures; stretches back lines.</li> <li>Matthew Clarke (Ballymena): popped up with the winner v Linfield; threat at the back post.</li> <li>Junior Ogedi-Uzokwe (Dungannon): confidence after scoring against Cliftonville; primary penalty-taker.</li> </ul> <h3>Market View and Value</h3> <p>Priced at 2.10, a Ballymena win looks slightly generous given the home/away split (2.00 PPG home vs 0.75 PPG away). The standout, however, is Dungannon not to score at 2.93. That price underrates the combined profile of Ballymena’s home clean sheets and Dungannon’s away output (plus the zero second-half goals statistic). For those seeking a bigger payout tied to control, Ballymena to win to nil (3.74) is logical but introduces 0-0 risk; “away no goal” wins 0-0 and is therefore a safer, better-value core stance. A correct score nibble on 1-0 (8.00) aligns well with the likely cagey rhythm and Ballymena’s comfort managing slender leads.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Ballymena to edge it, with the second half decisive. Dungannon’s recent lift won’t be enough unless they reverse their post-interval drought.</p> <p><strong>Lean:</strong> Ballymena 1-0 Dungannon.</p> </div>