Dungannon Swifts vs Larne

<div> <h2>Dungannon Swifts vs Larne: Formidable Visitors Target Another Clinical Away Day</h2> <p>Saturday’s Premiership meeting at Stangmore Park pits an improving but still fragile Dungannon against a Larne side in full flow. The market prices Larne around evens to win, with strong support for another clean sheet given their current defensive run. Our model leans toward Larne control, especially after halftime, and a low-scoring away win.</p> <h3>Venue-Specific Trends: Home/ Away Split Is Telling</h3> <p>Dungannon’s home numbers are a concern: 0.75 points per game, 0.75 goals scored per game, and 2.50 conceded. They’ve lost 3 of 4 at Stangmore, failing to score in half of them. Larne’s away output is less explosive than their perfect home slate, but still solid: 1.33 points per game, 0.67 conceded, and 33% clean sheets away. Critically, Dungannon concede first at home 75% of the time, and Larne score first in 88% of league matches, a dynamic that often dictates game state.</p> <h3>Current Trajectory and Momentum</h3> <p>Dungannon have shown green shoots with back-to-back wins (2-1 vs Cliftonville, 2-0 at Ballymena), nudging their last-8 PPG up 13% vs season average. However, the opponents and match states differed significantly from what they’ll face here. Larne come in with six straight league wins and six straight clean sheets, topping the last-8 form table (19 pts) and conceding just 2 goals in 8 games overall.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Why The Second Half Matters</h3> <p>Few stats are as stark as this: Dungannon have scored 0 second-half goals this season (GF 0, GA 8). Larne, by contrast, score 62% of their goals after the break, with 5 in the final 15 minutes alone. That asymmetry underpins the second-half angles: Larne rarely trail (time trailing 1%) and routinely tighten the vise across minutes 46-90. Expect the visitors to edge fitness, control and chance quality late on.</p> <h3>Situational Metrics: Leads, Chases and Conversions</h3> <p>Dungannon’s ppg when conceding first is 0.00 and equalising rate 0%, meaning they’ve not rescued points when behind. Larne’s lead-defending rate is 86% and they score first 88% of the time—an efficient front-runner. At halftime, Larne haven’t trailed this season; away from home they’ve been level in 67% of first halves and then shifted momentum after the interval.</p> <h3>Totals, BTTS and Scoreline Profiles</h3> <p>Larne are an under-leaning team: only 25% of their matches went Over 2.5, and 12% saw BTTS. Dungannon’s home overs rate (75%) is inflated by heavy home defeats (1-4, 0-3, 0-2), but the pattern still points to one-sided outcomes rather than shootouts. With Larne’s clean-sheet streak and Dungannon’s second-half drought, BTTS No and Away/Under combinations make strong statistical sense. The 0-2 correct score fits both clubs’ distributions (Larne away wins 0-2; Dungannon have two 0-2 home results across home/away splits).</p> <h3>Players and Tactical Notes</h3> <p>Larne spread the goals: Matthew Lusty, Dan Bent and Tiarnan O’Connor have all contributed in recent wins, while Mark Randall’s midfield control has been key to Larne’s calm, layered build-up. The visitors’ compact mid-block and fast wide runners have punished opponents late in games. Dungannon’s bright spots have come from set-plays and early surges—Junior Ogedi-Uzokwe’s penalties and Tom Maguire’s transitions—but they’ve lacked sustained shot volume after halftime, reflected in that 0 second-half GF.</p> <h3>Context and Caveats</h3> <p>It’s not ultra-early season (9 GP vs 8 GP), but some splits are still small samples. One red flag for away backers: Larne’s away lead-defending rate drops to 50% compared to 100% at home, and Dungannon’s home lead-defending rate is 100%—if the hosts do strike first, game state flips. That said, Dungannon’s probability of scoring first at home is just 25%, and Larne’s first-goal rate is elite. Weather is benign (dry, ~13°C), and both squads report no major absences, favoring a straight read on the numbers.</p> <h3>Betting Verdict</h3> <ul> <li>Primary: Larne to win the second half (2.30) – matches the teams’ stark second-half profiles.</li> <li>Strong: BTTS No (1.95) – Larne’s clean-sheet run and Dungannon’s 50% FTS at home.</li> <li>Support: Larne Win (1.95) – form and game-state advantages.</li> <li>Value: Larne Clean Sheet Yes (2.50) and Away/Under 2.5 (4.33); correct score 0-2 (9.00) for a small stake.</li> </ul> <p>Model lean: Larne 0-1 or 0-2, with the decisive moments after the interval.</p> </div>