Texoma vs Alta

<div> <h2>Texoma vs Alta: Data Points Favor Early Texoma Edge And Late Drama</h2> <p>Two expansion clubs arrive at Sherman Bearcat Stadium in contrasting moods but similarly bruised form. Texoma have stalled over the past month, while Alta’s slide has become a full-blown drought: three straight defeats and 12 without a win, with no goals in their last two league outings. The market leans slightly to Alta (2.31 away) on name power and season-long table position, but the granular splits and flow metrics tilt this matchup toward Texoma in the first half and a more open second period.</p> <h3>Venue Splits: Why Home Matters</h3> <p>Texoma’s home profile is high-variance: 1.54 GF and 1.92 GA per game (3.46 total), with “offence (home)” a relative bright spot. Alta away are vulnerable, conceding 1.92 per game and collecting just 0.83 PPG. Crucially, Texoma at home have scored first 62% of the time, while Alta have conceded first in 58% of away games. It’s a key axis in this contest, because Texoma average 1.64 PPG when they notch first but sag to 0.50 when they don’t.</p> <h3>Current Trajectories: Both Down, Alta Worse</h3> <p>Texoma’s last eight: 0.63 PPG, with GF down ~19% and GA up ~20% versus season averages. Alta’s last eight are starker: 0.50 PPG (down 58%), GF down 26%, GA up 42%. The form table confirms it: Texoma sit 12th over the last eight; Alta are bottom. Recent scorelines show Alta’s attack flattening out, which aligns with their 50% fail-to-score rate on the road.</p> <h3>Timing & Game Flow: Early Texoma, Later Chaos</h3> <p>Alta away are a first-half problem: just 4 GF and 12 GA before the interval; they’ve trailed at half in 58% of away matches. Texoma’s home first half is their stronger period (12 GF, 10 GA), and they’re ahead at the break in 38% at home. That underpins the value on Texoma first-half markets. After the interval, both sides see more action: Texoma’s second-half GA is 60% of home concessions, while Alta away tally 10 GF and 11 GA in second halves. Expect the game to stretch late.</p> <h3>Key Men: Spengler and Asanté vs Blancas</h3> <p>For Texoma, Philip Spengler (5G/3A, 7.50 rating) and veteran Solomon Asanté (4G) drive shot creation and early thrust. For Alta, the ceiling is tied to Eduardo Blancas (6G), with support from Jimmie Villalobos (4G) and Walmer Martínez (3G). The problem for Alta is recent form: the front line hasn’t connected away from home, and the side’s equalizing/lead-defence numbers (47% equalizing; 41% lead defence) suggest they neither protect advantages nor reliably claw back deficits.</p> <h3>Markets And Value</h3> <p>The model favors Texoma to land the first punch. “Team to score first: Texoma” at 2.00 looks attractive versus a 58–62% weighted probability from venue splits and timing. A bolder correlate is “First Half Winner: Texoma” at 3.28, supported by Alta’s away HT-losing rate (58%). For game rhythm, “Highest scoring half: 2nd half” at 1.98 suits both teams’ 2H-leaning totals and the late-goal trend in their segments (notably 76–90).</p> <p>Towards totals, headline Over 2.5 is fairly priced, but Over 3.5 at 2.62 is the shrewd value punt. Texoma’s home Over 3.5 hits 46% and Alta’s away 50%—nearly a coin flip—so 2.62 (implied ~38%) offers positive expected value. If you’re risk-averse, the safety net is “Double Chance: Texoma/Draw” at 1.48, leveraging Alta’s meager 17% away win rate.</p> <h3>Red Flags</h3> <p>Texoma’s susceptibility to early concessions (very early average minute conceded at home in the comparative split) slightly contradicts their strong “score first” profile—an indicator of volatility rather than a flaw in the angle. Alta’s 50% away fail-to-score rate caps the confidence in aggressively bullish totals every time, so we label Over 3.5 as speculative value rather than core.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>Expect Texoma to assert early, Alta to chase, and the second half to open up. The first-scorer and first-half markets on Texoma align best with the venue and timing data, while late-goal angles and an elevated 3.5 total present the value shots if the game tilts into the familiar Texoma home chaos.</p> </div>