Horsham vs Hampton & Richmond
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<html> <head><title>Horsham vs Hampton & Richmond Borough – Match Preview, Odds & Betting Analysis</title></head> <body> <h2>Horsham vs Hampton & Richmond Borough</h2> <p>Date: 11 November 2025 | Venue: Fusion Aviation Community Stadium</p> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>Horsham enter this mid-season National League South fixture riding an eight-match unbeaten run, positioned 4th and sniffing at the automatic-promotion conversation. Hampton & Richmond, by contrast, arrive on a six-game losing streak and fading after a solid opening. With winter congestion looming, this is a barometer game: Horsham look to cement their top-four pace, Hampton need to arrest a damaging slide.</p> <h3>Form Guide</h3> <ul> <li>Horsham (last eight league): 5W-3D-0L, 2.25 PPG, 0.63 GA per game.</li> <li>Hampton & Richmond: six straight defeats, winless in nine, two straight without scoring.</li> <li>Recent Horsham results include 1-0 vs Slough, 1-1 vs Dover, 2-0 away at Bath; they are managing game states with growing maturity.</li> <li>Hampton’s last three away: 0-1 (Chelmsford), 0-3 (Worthing), 1-2 (Hornchurch). Conceding in bursts, chance quality dwindling.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>Horsham’s structure has tightened. They’re comfortable absorbing early phases, then growing into matches. The goal timing splits show 64% of their home goals come after the interval, with decisive contributions in the final quarter. Set-pieces and penalties (James Hammond a recurring figure) complement open-play threats from runners like Fenelon and Rodrigues. Horsham’s midfield line seldom gets stretched at home, keeping central distances compact and protecting the back line.</p> <p>Hampton will look for transitions and wide isolation through Gardner and the channels for Silva/Fasanmade. The issue is progression phases: they’ve struggled to exit under pressure and have conceded five times in the 46–60-minute window away from home this season, a danger zone precisely where Horsham accelerate.</p> <h3>Key Metrics That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Game-state control: Horsham score first in 75% of home fixtures; Hampton concede first 75% away.</li> <li>Defensive trendline: Horsham’s last-8 GA down to 0.63; clean sheets in 38% of home games.</li> <li>Hampton’s attacking slump: 38% failed-to-score rate away; back-to-back blanks.</li> <li>Time-of-goal skew: Both sides tilt to 2nd-half action—value for “Highest Scoring Half: Second.”</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value Assessment</h3> <p>Market prices (Home 1.53, Draw 3.70, Away 5.25) give Horsham ~65% implied. The Oracle nudges that higher on current trajectory. The Asian -0.75 at 1.72 is the standout: half-win safety on a one-goal victory and full win at two-plus. Given Hampton’s collapse and Horsham’s defensive efficiency, BTTS No at 1.91 is another strong angle, supported by Hampton’s away FTS (38%) and Horsham’s recent clean-sheet profile.</p> <p>Prop-wise, highest scoring half (2nd) at 2.05 aligns with both teams’ minute-by-minute splits. For bigger price seekers, Horsham to win to nil (2.62) and the 1-0 correct score (7.50) fit the hosts’ pattern of narrow, controlled home wins.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>James Hammond (Horsham): reliable from the spot and late-game moments—calm decision-maker in tight contests.</li> <li>Shamir Fenelon and Lucas Rodrigues: vertical threat and direct running to stress Hampton’s fullbacks post-HT.</li> <li>Harry Gardner (Hampton): most likely to conjure something from the flank if they break lines in transition.</li> </ul> <h3>Weather and Match Rhythm</h3> <p>A cool November evening favors compactness and set-piece margins. Horsham’s recent habit of keeping shape then edging games late dovetails with the conditions and Hampton’s second-half lapses.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Horsham’s blend of defensive stability and late-game punch should be too much for a Hampton side low on confidence and penetration. Expect a controlled home performance, with the decisive moments after the break. Primary angle: Horsham -0.75. Secondary: BTTS No and second-half-centric markets. For the adventurous, sprinkle 1-0.</p> </body> </html>
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