Worthing vs Farnborough

<div> <h2>Worthing vs Farnborough: Form, Numbers, and Where the Value Lies</h2> <h3>Match Context</h3> <p>Worthing welcome Farnborough to the Sussex Transport Community Stadium in Gameweek 22 of National League South. The Oracle rates the hosts as rightful favourites based on a commanding home profile and sustained improvement across the last two months. Media sentiment mirrors that—predictive models lean toward a home victory in the 2-0 or 2-1 corridor. H2H caution remains: Farnborough have edged recent meetings, including a 1-0 win in August, but the venue and current trajectories tilt this contest toward Worthing.</p> <h3>Worthing: Elite Home Split and Rising Trend</h3> <p>Across 10 home matches, Worthing average 2.10 PPG with 2.50 goals scored and just 0.60 conceded. More tellingly, they’ve led at the break in 70% of home fixtures and have won five straight at Woodside Road with four clean sheets in that span. Their last eight league matches show a marked uptick—2.63 PPG and 3.13 goals per game—highlighting both confidence and a deepening attacking lane featuring Brad Dolaghan, R. De-Graft, and Nathan Odokonyero.</p> <p>Game-state management is strong: Worthing defend leads at 75% at home and outscore opponents decisively after the interval, with nine goals in the 76–90’ window alone.</p> <h3>Farnborough: Improved at Home, Struggling Away</h3> <p>Farnborough have stabilised recently (unbeaten in four, two straight wins), but most of that traction has come at home. Their away split is problematic: just 0.60 PPG, conceding 2.20 per game, failing to score 40% of the time. They allow the opponent to score first in 70% of away matches and average conceding first around the 19th minute, which aligns uncomfortably with Worthing’s strong first-half starts at home.</p> <p>They do retain weapons—Rakish Bingham remains a threat—but defending leads away has been a major weakness (defending-lead rate a startling 20%). If Farnborough do go ahead, the in-play read still leans toward Worthing finding a route back.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Worthing’s possession-based, front-foot approach at Woodside Road has married well with better rest-defense structure lately. The hosts’ wide rotations and third-man runs have unlocked a flurry of late goals; they’re comfortable accelerating the tempo after halftime. Farnborough’s away record indicates structural issues defending space between the lines and late-phase transitions, precisely where Worthing thrive. Set-pieces are an ancillary edge for the hosts given aerial threat from Cook/Byron and composed deliveries.</p> <h3>Key Angles and Betting Value</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Worthing to Win:</strong> Home metrics vs Farnborough’s away profile point to a clear probability edge. Fair price 1.75; value if books hang ≥1.75.</li> <li><strong>HT/FT Worthing/Worthing:</strong> 70% Worthing home HT leads vs 60% Farnborough away HT deficits. Fair 2.70; value ≥2.70.</li> <li><strong>Worthing Win to Nil:</strong> 60% home clean sheets and Farnborough away FTS 40% justify a swing at a bigger price (fair 3.20+).</li> <li><strong>Second Half Highest Scoring:</strong> Worthing’s late surge (9 goals 76–90’) and Farnborough’s late concessions (7 GA 76–90’ away) bolster this bet. Fair 2.05.</li> <li><strong>Player Prop – Brad Dolaghan Anytime:</strong> The form finisher in an attack averaging 2.50 GF at home; fair 2.60, especially attractive if he’s on penalties or primary late-game target.</li> </ul> <h3>Red Flags</h3> <p>Farnborough’s H2H success in 2025 and recent unbeaten run argue for sensible staking. Also, typical December coastal conditions could slow the tempo; however, Worthing’s home defensive baseline still points toward control.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Everything in the venue and situational numbers favours Worthing. The strongest edges are on the outright home win and the HT/FT double, with ancillary value on win to nil and a second-half bias. Back the hosts and look to add in-play if Worthing’s press pins Farnborough early as expected.</p> </div> Note: Use the provided fair odds as value thresholds. Only place if market prices are equal or better.