Kumla vs Grebbestad
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<html> <head><title>Kumla vs Grebbestad: Data-Driven Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Overview</h2> <p>Kumla host Grebbestad in Division 2 – Norra Götaland with both sides sharing a curious weakness in this split: Kumla are poor at home (0.64 PPG) and Grebbestad are underwhelming away (0.64 PPG). Yet recent momentum and the head-to-head history tilt the balance toward the visitors, who have outscored Kumla comfortably in recent seasons, including decisive wins in 2024. With 23 league matches played, the underlying numbers have settled, painting a clear picture of late-game activity and limited home scoring from Kumla.</p> <h2>Form and Motivation</h2> <ul> <li>Form table (last 8): Grebbestad 3rd (14 pts), Kumla 12th (7 pts).</li> <li>Grebbestad’s last eight: PPG 1.75 (+38.9% vs season), GF up 23.7%, GA down 20.7%.</li> <li>Kumla’s last eight: PPG 0.88, GF 0.75 (−35.9% vs season), indicating an attack trending down.</li> </ul> <p>League positions underline the stakes: Grebbestad sit mid-upper table, while Kumla are just above the drop zone. Sentiment around Grebbestad remains positive with a stable XI, while Kumla continue to rotate in search of answers. No major injuries are reported.</p> <h2>Venue Split and Tactical Tendencies</h2> <p>Kumla’s home profile is stark: 0.91 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game, only 18% of times scoring first, and a lead-defending rate of just 33%. They spend 44% of home minutes trailing. Grebbestad away are not dominant, but their recent improvement and late-goal profile give them a route to points.</p> <h2>Timing and Flow: Expect the Second Half to Decide It</h2> <ul> <li>Kumla: 63% of goals scored after HT; Grebbestad: 66% after HT.</li> <li>76–90 minutes: Grebbestad 13 goals, Kumla involved in 14 total goal events (7 GF, 7 GA).</li> <li>Both teams concede proportionally more after the interval (Grebbestad GA 55% in the second half).</li> </ul> <p>All signs point to the second half bringing the decisive action: tactical adjustments, tired legs, and historical scoring concentration in the late phases.</p> <h2>Totals and Both Teams to Score</h2> <p>Over 2.5 sits near fair at 1.66 (Kumla home Over 2.5 is 64%, Grebbestad away 55%). Under 3.5 at 1.42 rates as a reasonable parlay leg given Grebbestad’s away Over 3.5 is only 9%. BTTS Yes at 1.54 has little value versus blended incidence (~60%). A more efficient route is to target the second-half markets and Kumla’s team total unders.</p> <h2>Players to Watch</h2> <p>Kumla’s recent scorers—Amin Gorgol, Joel Segerlind, and Lucas Torgen—have provided sporadic moments, frequently after the interval. Grebbestad’s spread of contributors (Hampus Furublad, Henrik Hjellegjerde, E. Nsengo, Jesper Mattson, Endrim Salihi) underlines their late-scoring profile and depth in chance creation. Expect Grebbestad to keep asking questions down the flanks and capitalize on Kumla’s difficulties defending transitions late on.</p> <h2>Market Angles and Value</h2> <ul> <li><strong>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (1.93):</strong> The data case is strong, with both sides heavily second-half oriented.</li> <li><strong>Double Chance (Draw/Away) 1.43:</strong> Against a team with 9% home win rate, this prices in risk but still leaves an edge with Grebbestad’s form uptick and H2H dominance.</li> <li><strong>Kumla TT Under 1.5 (1.70):</strong> Home GF just 0.91; three blanks in last four home games.</li> <li><strong>Correct Score 1-1 (6.00):</strong> Matches both sides’ common results (Kumla home 1-1 at 18%, Grebbestad away 1-1 at 27%).</li> </ul> <h2>Weather and Conditions</h2> <p>Cloudy and mild conditions in Kumla should be football-friendly, with no significant weather disruption expected.</p> <h2>Prediction</h2> <p>Grebbestad to avoid defeat, with the match defined after the break. A 1-1 draw fits the distributions, though a narrow 0-1 or 1-2 away success is plausible if Grebbestad’s late push and superior recent form tell.</p> </body> </html>
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