Dijon vs Villefranche
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<html> <head><title>Dijon vs Villefranche: Data-Driven Preview, Odds & Betting Insights</title></head> <body> <h2>Dijon vs Villefranche (National 1) – Form, Odds and Tactical Preview</h2> <p>Dijon welcome Villefranche in an early-season National 1 clash on 12 September 2025 with the hosts carrying clear momentum and market favoritism. The consolidated betting shows Dijon at 1.60 to win, draw at 3.58, and Villefranche at 5.40. Our model leans toward the hosts but focuses on sharper angles where the price better matches the underlying data.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Dijon are unbeaten through five (2W, 3D), sitting third in the table and widely tipped as promotion contenders. Their home split is strong: 2.00 PPG with 2.5 goals scored per game. Villefranche, by contrast, average just 1.00 PPG overall and 0.00 PPG away. They are coming off a sobering 0–3 home defeat to Fleury-Mérogis and have yet to score first in any match.</p> <h3>Venue Split and Match Flow</h3> <p>The venue-specific data is stark. Dijon have scored first in 100% of their home fixtures and have spent 55% of their minutes in the lead at Stade Gaston Gérard. Villefranche away have led 0% of the time and concede 3.0 goals per game. Expect Dijon to control territory early, with the visitors leaning on compact shape and transitional moments.</p> <h3>Second-Half Bias and Late Goals</h3> <p>Both sides’ timing metrics point to a lively second half. Dijon score 57% of their goals after the break and have netted three times between 76–90’. Villefranche concede 71% after HT and leaked twice in the 76–90’ window away. This supports prices on the “Dijon to win the second half” angle and the “Second Half Over 1.5” at a chunky 2.33.</p> <h3>Tactical Notes and Key Players</h3> <p>Dijon’s attack has multiple contributors: Domingues has already converted from the spot and impacted late-game states, while Barka and others have chipped in. The hosts combine early pressure with a late-game surge, consistent with their split in goal timings. Villefranche’s goals have arrived via Sbai, Mroivili (pen), and Mixtur, but output remains thin (0.75 GF per game). Their best route is likely set-plays and counters, especially if Dijon’s lead-defending (50% at home) wobbles again.</p> <h3>Markets, Value and Risk</h3> <p>The moneyline at 1.60 looks fair rather than fabulous. Better value sits on Dijon -0.75 (1.77), which pays half on a one-goal win and full on two-plus. Dijon’s team total Over 1.5 (1.87) aligns with their 2.5 GF home average and Villefranche’s away GA (3.0). With Dijon conceding in both home matches (CS 0%), BTTS Yes at 2.05 is a reasonable price-driven dart despite Villefranche’s modest attack.</p> <h3>Weather and Matchday Factors</h3> <p>Forecast is mild to cool with a chance of light rain—playable conditions that should not materially suppress scoring. No major injuries or lineup disruptions are reported; both managers should field largely settled XIs.</p> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <ul> <li>Dijon -0.75 AH (1.77): Home superiority vs poor travelers.</li> <li>Second Half Winner – Dijon (1.96): Hosts improve after HT; visitors fade.</li> <li>Dijon Over 1.5 Goals (1.87): Volume advantage vs leaky Villefranche away defense.</li> <li>BTTS Yes (2.05): Dijon home CS 0%; visitors capable of a consolation.</li> </ul> <h3>Correct Score Lean</h3> <p>2–1 Dijon (7.40) dovetails with our main angles: home win, over 1.5 goals, and a late Villefranche reply.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>Dijon’s early-season profile, venue dominance, and second-half strength make them rightful favorites. The best value sits slightly off the main line—Dijon -0.75, second-half angles, and home team goals—reflecting both teams’ timing tendencies and the visitors’ vulnerability after the break.</p> </body> </html>
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