Quevilly vs Aubagne
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<html> <head> <title>Quevilly Rouen vs Aubagne – National 1 Match Preview</title> <meta name="description" content="Data-driven preview for Quevilly Rouen vs Aubagne in France National 1 with form, odds and tactical insights." /> </head> <body> <h2>Quevilly Rouen vs Aubagne: Tight, Tactical, and Likely Low-Scoring</h2> <p>Stade Robert Diochon hosts a finely poised National 1 clash as Quevilly Rouen Métropole welcome an Aubagne side riding early momentum. With both teams enjoying a full week’s rest since their September 5 fixtures and no major injuries reported, expect a concentrated, tactical match under mild, partly cloudy skies.</p> <h3>Form Snapshot</h3> <p>Quevilly have endured a slow start (1 point from 4), but their only home match brought a spirited 1-1 draw against Caen via a 90th-minute equaliser. Aubagne, meanwhile, have steadied well after an opening 0-3 defeat at Caen, putting together a W-D-D run, including a 0-0 away draw at Bourg-en-Bresse. That away stalemate followed a combative 1-1 at home to Concarneau, underscoring Aubagne’s improved defensive structure and late-game resilience.</p> <h3>Venue Factor and Match Rhythm</h3> <p>Venue splits point to a modest game state. Quevilly’s home figures sit at 1.00 GF and 1.00 GA per match (only one sample), while Aubagne’s away profile is even more conservative: 0.00 GF and 1.50 GA over two outings. Notably, Aubagne have failed to score in both away matches this season, and their away “both teams to score” rate stands at 0%.</p> <h3>Timing Trends: Expect the Action Late</h3> <p>The most striking shared pattern is late scoring. Aubagne have scored 100% of their goals in the second half, with three arriving between 76 and 90 minutes. Quevilly also skew late in attack and concede heavily before half-time. This suggests a cagey first half followed by a livelier, higher-variance final half hour—precisely the type of flow that often produces one decisive goal rather than a glut.</p> <h3>Tactical Angles</h3> <p>Quevilly under pressure tend to sit a touch deeper, seeking set pieces and late equalizers—evidenced by that stoppage-time leveller against Caen. Aubagne’s compact 4-2-3-1 on the road has prioritised structure over aggression; the 0-0 at Bourg-en-Bresse was a deliberate reset after the Caen loss. Look for Aubagne to compress space centrally, forcing Quevilly wide and relying on transitions after the hour mark.</p> <h3>Key Metrics vs League Context</h3> <ul> <li>Quevilly: 0.75 GF and 1.75 GA per game (both worse than league averages), 0% clean sheets.</li> <li>Aubagne: 1.00 GF and 1.25 GA per game (near league norms) but 0.00 GF away and 50% away clean sheets.</li> <li>Time leading: Quevilly 6% vs Aubagne 5%—a recipe for long spells of parity.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>Markets price the match winner tightly (Home 2.38, Draw 3.08, Away 2.90), reflecting uncertainty. The value stands out on totals and timing markets. Under 2.0 goals at 1.95 aligns with blended venue totals (~1.7–1.9 expected). “Highest Scoring Half – 2nd” at 2.12 is backed by both teams’ 76–90 spikes. The draw at 3.08 is a fair supplement given the teams’ minimal time leading and Aubagne’s 0-0 away tendency.</p> <h3>Scoreline and Prop Thoughts</h3> <p>With Aubagne yet to score away and Quevilly showing limited cutting edge, 1-0 or 0-0 are live. Correct Score 1-0 at 5.85 offers a decent spec play. If you prefer team-based props, “Aubagne to score – No” at 2.57 is a price-led angle acknowledging both the away scoring drought and the risk from Quevilly’s 0% clean sheet rate.</p> <h3>Intangibles and Sentiment</h3> <p>Sentiment tilts toward Aubagne’s upward trajectory—stability in the technical area and a handful of smart summer additions have raised optimism. Quevilly’s fanbase is more guarded, but the expectation is for a disciplined home display. The absence of notable injuries and a full week’s rest removes scheduling excuses; this should be an honest, evenly contested fixture where patience and concentration matter.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Data leans low-scoring with the decisive action most likely after half-time. The best angles are Under 2.0 goals, Draw, and 2nd half to be the higher scoring half. For a longshot, 1-0 home is the scoreline with the most narrative support.</p> </body> </html>
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