Aubagne vs Versailles
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<html> <head> <title>Aubagne vs Versailles – National 1 Betting Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Aubagne vs Versailles: Formidable visitors meet late-surging hosts</h2> <p>Versailles arrive in Aubagne on a perfect 12-point haul from four matches and a statement away record: two wins from two, conceding none. Aubagne have steadied after last season’s struggles, sitting mid-table with eight points from five, and notably stronger at home with four points from two matches. With both sides well-rested after games on September 12, tactical clarity and execution should decide a tight contest.</p> <h3>Momentum and match state control</h3> <p>Few in National 1 control match states like Versailles right now. They’ve scored first in all four matches, haven’t trailed, and spend 71% of away minutes leading. Their compact defensive structure has travelled: two away clean sheets, including a 0–2 at Caen. Aubagne’s improvement is real—unbeaten in four—but they’ve led only 6% of the time overall, relying on late surges to retrieve or push results over the line.</p> <h3>The 45-minute split: why the second half matters</h3> <p>Aubagne at home are a second-half team. Every goal they have scored or conceded at home has been after the interval, with an average scoring minute of 79. Versailles away skew their production to the second half too (67% of away goals), often striking decisively just after the restart (49’–54’ bursts). That aligns with wagers favouring the second half to outscore the first and strengthens HT Draw angles.</p> <h3>Totals and BTTS: conflicting small samples</h3> <p>Totals are where the data clashes. Aubagne’s two home matches ended 3–1 and 1–1 (BTTS 2/2), but Versailles’ away games were 0–1 and 0–2 (BTTS 0/2; under 2.5 in both). Early-season samples can be noisy; however, Versailles’ defensive control and ability to get in front suggests a lower-scoring away template is more repeatable than Aubagne’s chaotic late flurries—especially if Versailles break through first and dictate tempo.</p> <h3>Key players and tactical levers</h3> <p>Versailles spread goals among Shelton Guillaume, Cédric Odzoumo and Jawad Kalai, which makes them harder to key on defensively. Their midfield additions have tightened transitions and fed a front line comfortable attacking space, particularly in the early second half. Aubagne’s spark has come late through Mayilla, Chaban and Nehari; they’ve excelled at chasing games at home, but will face Versailles’ best-in-league lead-protection. Expect Aubagne to stay organized early, concede little before the break, and grow risk as the second half wears on.</p> <h3>Odds, value and where the market may be light</h3> <p>Market prices are tight on the 1X2 (Home 2.65, Draw 3.05, Away 2.60), acknowledging Aubagne’s home uptick. The value tilts toward Versailles in state-based markets: Away DNB at 1.84 protects the draw with still-healthy upside on a win; Team to Score First (Away) at 2.04 generously prices against Versailles’ 100% first-goal record and Aubagne’s 0 first-half home goals; HT Draw at 1.94 matches venue-specific patterns (Aubagne 100% HT draws at home; Versailles away 50%).</p> <h3>Scoreline projection</h3> <p>Versailles’ away template—control, score first, defend the lead—points to a narrow win. Aubagne’s best path is to hold to halftime and punch late, but Versailles’ structure reduces high-variance phases. A 0–1 away win fits the underlying numbers and the visitors’ early-season personality.</p> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <ul> <li>Versailles +0 (DNB) @ 1.84 – elite away control, zero away goals conceded, 100% first goal.</li> <li>Versailles to score first @ 2.04 – 4/4 scored first; away avg first goal 26’.</li> <li>HT Draw @ 1.94 – Aubagne’s home HT draws 2/2; Versailles away split 1/1.</li> <li>Highest scoring half: 2nd @ 2.08 – Aubagne’s goals all after HT at home; Versailles away skew late.</li> <li>Correct score 0–1 @ 6.60 – mirrors Versailles’ away pattern and low totals.</li> </ul> <p>Given small samples, keep staking measured, but Versailles’ away robustness and first-goal dominance provide the clearest edge in an otherwise competitive fixture.</p> </body> </html>
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