Concarneau vs Fleury 91
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<html> <head> <title>Concarneau vs Fleury 91: Data-Led Preview and Betting Outlook</title> </head> <body> <h2>Match Context</h2> <p>US Concarneau host Fleury 91 in National 1 on September 19, 2025, 17:30 UTC. It’s an early-season meeting between near-neighbors in the table (Concarneau 8th, Fleury 9th). Concarneau arrive off a chastening 0-4 at Versailles, while Fleury’s last road trip produced an excellent 3-0 win at Villefranche. No major injuries are reported and weather is set fair around 18°C—ideal footballing conditions.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <ul> <li>Concarneau (last 5): W-D-D-W-L, with the home win (3-1 vs QRM) showcasing attacking punch but the Versailles defeat exposing defensive fragility.</li> <li>Fleury (last 5): W-L-L-W with the standout 3-0 away win, and a stubborn 0-0 at Rouen earlier in the campaign.</li> <li>Rest days: Fleury have a slight rest advantage (last played Sept 5) over Concarneau (Sept 12), which could help sustain their compact away shape.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Tendencies</h3> <p>Expect Concarneau to use the ball more aggressively at home, with Youssouf Soukouna a key penalty-box presence after his brace in their lone home fixture. Fleury underpinned by Kevin Farade’s sharpness in transition, are comfortable without the ball and very disciplined away from home—two clean sheets in three away games, conceding just once (late).</p> <h3>Key Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Fleury away: BTTS 0%, GA 0.33, clean sheets 67%.</li> <li>Both teams: ppgWhenConcededFirst = 0.00; equalizingRate 0%—first goal is likely decisive.</li> <li>Concarneau concede late: 50% of goals against come in 76-90’. Fleury away scoring leans to the second half (67%).</li> <li>First-half patterns: Fleury away HT draws 67%; Concarneau overall HT draws 40%—a cagey opening is favored.</li> </ul> <h3>Totals and BTTS Outlook</h3> <p>While Concarneau’s only home match ended 3-1, the broader sample tilts toward a lower-scoring game. Fleury’s away totals sit at just 1.33 goals per match, with two of three away matches landing under 2.5 and both seeing BTTS No. Given both clubs’ inability to recover once they trail, game states tend to “lock in,” suppressing end-to-end exchanges. That supports under-based angles and BTTS No.</p> <h3>Match-Ups and Individuals</h3> <ul> <li>Soukouna (Concarneau) vs Fleury’s back line: The home striker’s movement is a true test of Fleury’s compact 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 defensive structure. If Concarneau strike early, they are strong protectors of a lead at home (100% lead-defending rate—small sample).</li> <li>Farade (Fleury): In form and efficient; thrives in transition. Concarneau’s late-phase defensive lapses (three goals conceded in 76-90) add jeopardy if they chase the game.</li> </ul> <h3>Betting Market Read</h3> <p>Markets lean slightly toward Concarneau (2.35 home win) but the more robust value sits in derivative markets:</p> <ul> <li>BTTS No (1.84): Underpinned by Fleury’s away BTTS 0% and strong clean-sheet rate.</li> <li>First Half Draw (2.05): Matches the high away HT draw rate and both teams’ conservative start tendencies.</li> <li>Under 2.25 (1.88): In line with Fleury’s low away goal totals and both sides’ low equalizing rates that limit trading goals.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (2.07): Late skew from Concarneau’s concessions and Fleury’s away scoring profile.</li> </ul> <h3>Scoreline and Risk-Reward Angles</h3> <p>The correct-score pool shows appetizing prices for 0-0 (7.50) and 1-0 either way (7.50/9.00). Given the defensive complexion of Fleury’s away games and the first-goal lock-in effect for both teams, 0-0 is a sensible sprinkle. A cautious Concarneau response to the Versailles loss, combined with Fleury’s structure, could yield few clear chances.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a tight encounter where the first goal—if it arrives—decides. The strongest data signal is against both teams scoring, and the first half should be cautious. Totals lean under, with a chance the contest opens slightly after the hour. For bettors, the value lies in BTTS No, first-half draw, and under 2.25, with late-goal angles modestly favored.</p> </body> </html>
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