Fleury 91 vs Aubagne

<div> <h2>Fleury 91 vs Aubagne FC: Data-Driven Edge Points to Disciplined Home Win</h2> <p>Stade Auguste Gentelet hosts a compelling early-season National 1 clash as Fleury 91 welcome Aubagne FC. Both clubs have started solidly—Fleury in the top six and Aubagne just behind—but the numbers reveal contrasting identities: Fleury jump out early and protect advantages; Aubagne build steadily and finish strong.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Fleury arrive on a mini-surge after back-to-back away wins to nil (3–0 at Villefranche, 1–0 at Concarneau). Aubagne are unbeaten in five and have earned creditable results, including a 2–1 away win at Quevilly Rouen and a 1–1 home draw with promotion-fancied Versailles. No major injuries or tactical overhauls are reported for either side, and conditions are expected to be mild and dry—ideal for a fair contest.</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies: Fast Starts vs Late Pushes</h3> <p>Fleury’s most striking edge is how quickly they hit the front. Their average minute of the first goal scored is 12, and at home they’ve struck almost immediately (2’ average from a tiny sample). They lead for 43% of match time and convert leads superbly (lead defending rate 100%).</p> <p>Aubagne, by contrast, are late bloomers: 86% of their goals come after half-time, and they have scored four times in the 76–90 segment. That late punch is offset by modest away output (0.67 goals per game) and a hefty 67% away “failed to score” rate across three trips.</p> <h3>Where the Numbers Point the Markets</h3> <p>Totals first: Under 3.5 has landed in 10 of the sides’ 12 combined matches this season—only two games have cleared four goals. That’s critical for proposition builders. At the same time, Fleury’s home games have been more open (4–1 vs Briochin, 1–2 vs Caen) and over 2.5 sits at 100% for Fleury at home and 67% for Aubagne away. The overlap zone is three goals; scorelines such as 2–1 or 3–0 are prominent candidates.</p> <p>Match result: Fleury’s superior control metrics (time leading 43% vs Aubagne’s 5%; PPG when scoring first 3.0) favor a home win. Add Aubagne’s away equalizing rate of 0% when conceding first and the hosts’ front-running style looks decisive.</p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <p>Kévin Farade has been Fleury’s cutting edge, scoring four already (including a brace vs Stade Briochin and decisive goals on the road). His movement across the front and early timing make him the first-goal threat. For Aubagne, Karim Chaban’s late contributions stand out—the visitors’ best moments have come in the last quarter where they pose a real counterpunch.</p> <h3>Best Bets and How They Link to the Game Script</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Fleury to win & Under 3.5</strong> (around 2.07): Fits the data-led script—hosts to establish an advantage and manage it in a game unlikely to exceed four goals.</li> <li><strong>Fleury to score first</strong> (around 1.50): Mirrors their early-goal profile vs Aubagne’s slow first halves.</li> <li><strong>Second Half Over 1.0</strong> (around 1.64): Captures Aubagne’s late scoring habit and Fleury’s tendency to concede late when the game stretches.</li> <li><strong>Win to Nil: Fleury</strong> (around 2.38): Price-led value given Aubagne’s away FTS rate (67%), albeit Fleury’s home clean-sheet sample is small.</li> <li><strong>Correct Score 2–0</strong> (around 6.00): Correlates with the win-to-nil and under-3.5 angles while covering the common three-goal corridor if you prefer 3–0/2–1 variations.</li> </ul> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>The clash of profiles—Fleury’s fast starts and stalwart lead protection against Aubagne’s second-half surges—tilts the probabilities toward a measured home victory. Expect the hosts to assert early, with most volatility (and hedge value) arriving after the break. The data most comfortably supports Fleury to win in a match that stays under four total goals.</p> </div>