Dijon vs Quevilly
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<html> <head><title>Dijon vs Quevilly – National 1 Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Dijon vs Quevilly: Form, Numbers and Value</h2> <p>Third-placed Dijon welcome 14th-placed Quevilly-Rouen Métropole to Stade Gaston-Gérard with the hosts riding a steady, unbeaten start. The mood around Dijon is optimistic; a compact defense and timely scoring have them pushing near the summit. Quevilly arrive under pressure, though recent away results offer a flicker of uplift.</p> <h3>Recent Form and Context</h3> <p>Dijon have been consistent through eight fixtures (PPG 1.75), rock-solid at home (2.00 PPG) and unbeaten at Stade Gaston-Gérard. A 3-0 dismissal of Concarneau showcased their attacking edge, while a 1-1 at Aubagne underlined resilience. Quevilly’s season is uneven (1.00 PPG), yet away wins at Bourg (0-3) and Versailles (1-2) suggest they are capable when space opens up outside Rouen.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Dijon’s home dynamic revolves around early initiative and control. They score first in 75% of home fixtures and haven’t conceded first there yet. Their lead-defending rate at home is 67%, and they’ve spent 40% of home minutes leading. Expect a balanced 4-2-3-1 look with Yanis Barka’s direct runs and Julien Domingues’ penalty threat. Off-ball, Dijon compress midfield lines and limit central entries, contributing to a 0.75 GA at home.</p> <p>Quevilly are more chaotic away—higher goal volume, more transitions. With Achille Anani and Jordan Leborgne, they can threaten early (away average minute scored first: 16). But their vulnerability is clear: when they concede first away, their points return is 0.00, and they’re especially leaky late in the first half (31–45 GA = 3). They defend aggressively but leave channels, making them susceptible to Dijon’s early and interval surges.</p> <h3>Key Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Dijon home: 2.00 GF/0.75 GA; unbeaten in four home games.</li> <li>Quevilly away: 2.80 total goals per game; 80% over 2.5 hit rate.</li> <li>Quevilly BTTS: 75% overall—goal trading is common.</li> <li>Dijon score first at home 75%; Quevilly’s away PPG after conceding first: 0.00.</li> </ul> <h3>Set-Piece and Timing Angles</h3> <p>Dijon’s best windows are the opening 15 and the 31–45 period, where Quevilly show their softest underbelly. Expect Dijon to target early width and second-phase deliveries, with Barka and late-arriving midfielders arriving around the penalty spot. Quevilly carry counterpunch threat, particularly through Anani’s movement and Leborgne’s timing.</p> <h3>Market View & The Oracle’s Picks</h3> <p>The market in National 1 leans conservative on totals; here the profile tilts toward more goals. Dijon’s draw tendency makes Asian -0.25 superior to straight 1X2. Overs are supported by both teams’ venue-specific totals and Quevilly’s BTTS trend.</p> <ul> <li><strong>Primary:</strong> Dijon -0.25 AH (around 1.85). Home dominance and Quevilly’s inability to recover from deficits away are decisive.</li> <li><strong>Totals:</strong> Over 2.25 goals (around 1.95). Combined home/away totals (2.75 and 2.80) plus Quevilly’s 80% away over 2.5 support the play.</li> <li><strong>BTTS Yes:</strong> (around 1.95). Quevilly’s 75% BTTS rate offsets Dijon’s clean-sheet profile to create value.</li> <li><strong>Halftime Dijon:</strong> (around 2.60). Early goal timing favors the hosts; Quevilly concede late in the first half.</li> <li><strong>Prop:</strong> Yanis Barka Anytime (around 3.40). In-form, prominent at home, and facing a defense that wobbles before halftime.</li> </ul> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Dijon to edge a lively game. The first goal is pivotal; the numbers suggest it’s likelier to be Dijon’s. Quevilly’s away openness and improving front line should keep them in it, but Dijon’s structure and home control carry the day.</p> <p><strong>Projected score:</strong> Dijon 2–1 Quevilly.</p> <p><em>Bet responsibly. Lines move—shop for best prices.</em></p> </body> </html>
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