Nantes vs Nice
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<html> <head> <title>Nantes vs Nice – Coupe de France Round of 32 Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Nantes vs Nice: Late Goals, Local Edge and a Cup Identity Clash</h2> <p>This Round of 32 tie at Stade de la Beaujoire brings together two underperforming Ligue 1 sides on different short‑term trajectories. Nantes have found a flicker of momentum under Ahmed Kantari, while Claude Puel’s new‑old era at Nice is still searching for a first win. Layer in AFCON and injury absences and the tactical puzzle tilts toward a nervy, late‑deciding cup game.</p> <h3>Form and Mood</h3> <p>Nantes opened 2026 by stunning Marseille 2–0 at the Vélodrome, then added a cup win in a nine‑goal thriller the round prior. The home league record is still poor, but the mood around the Beaujoire is upbeat for the first time in months. Conversely, Nice’s long slump has drained confidence: they are winless in seven, with five straight away defeats, and the narrative around Puel’s return is cautious at best.</p> <h3>Team News and Absences</h3> <p>Nantes are without top striker Mostafa Mohamed (AFCON) and defender Chidozie Awaziem (AFCON), with Fabien Centonze a hamstring doubt. The onus in attack shifts to Matthis Abline and veteran Youssef El‑Arabi. Nice’s list is heavier: Youssouf Ndayishimiye and Mohamed Abdelmonem are long‑term outs, while AFCON takes Yehvann Diouf (GK), Antoine Mendy, and Hicham Boudaoui. Terem Moffi and Jeremie Boga are doubtful; if they miss, Puel’s front three likely features Mohamed‑Ali Cho, Elye Wahi, and Tiago Gouveia, with Morgan Sanson driving from midfield.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchups</h3> <p>Kantari has favored a compact 3‑4‑2‑1/3‑4‑1‑2 with energetic wing‑backs and a direct link into Abline. Without Mohamed, Nantes will look for early runs into channels and crossing situations for El‑Arabi’s penalty‑box craft. On the other side, Nice’s best supply line is from fullbacks. Jonathan Clauss provides elite delivery, and Melvin Bard’s timing and combinations are solid—yet Nice’s away lead‑defending rate (25%) makes any early advantage precarious. Transitional phases favor Nantes; if they weather Nice’s first‑half surges, space should open after the break.</p> <h3>Why Late Goals Are the Angle</h3> <p>Data screams second‑half action. Nantes concede 68% after halftime and a striking 10 goals between 76–90 minutes; Nice concede 57% after halftime, with a dramatic away split (GA 11 vs GF 1 in second halves). In cup ties, pace often quickens late with higher risk and attacking substitutions. Those ingredients underpin The Oracle’s top angles: Highest Scoring Half – Second Half and Over 1.5 goals in the second half.</p> <h3>Numbers that Matter</h3> - Nice away: 0.50 PPG, 2.25 GA; over 2.5 lands 75% with 3.25 goals per game.<br/> - Nantes home: 1.88 GA; total goals at home average 2.88.<br/> - Game‑state metrics: Nice equalizing rate just 14% away; Nantes’ PPG collapses to 0.18 when conceding first—live bettors should watch the first goal keenly.<br/> <h3>Projected XIs</h3> <p><strong>Nantes (3‑4‑2‑1):</strong> Lopes; Radakovic – Tati – Cozza; Amian – Coquelin – Mwanga – Machado; Tabibou – Abline – El‑Arabi.</p> <p><strong>Nice (4‑3‑3):</strong> Dupe; Clauss – Bah – Oppong – Bard; Diallo – Ndombele – Sanson; Cho – Wahi – Gouveia.</p> <h3>Set Pieces and Corners</h3> <p>Corner volumes trend around double digits for both, with Nice’s Clauss a key provider. However, the best edge lies in goals markets—specifically the second‑half bias—rather than corner overs, which price closer to fair.</p> <h3>Betting Verdict</h3> <p>The Oracle leans into late‑game dynamics: Highest Scoring Half – Second Half (1.93) and Second‑Half Over 1.5 (2.00) carry the clearest edge. Over 2.5 (1.80) makes sense against Nice’s away profile. For outcome exposure, Nantes to Qualify (1.95) rates a modest value play with home advantage, better mood, and a heavily depleted opponent. As a prop, Abline Anytime (2.62) is acceptable if he starts as the central reference.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Call</h3> <p>A tight first half, followed by stretched phases after the interval. Nantes’ energy, the crowd, and Nice’s away fragility tilt the balance. Expect the decisive moments late—and the hosts to edge qualification.</p> </body> </html>
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