Mirassol vs RB Bragantino

<div> <h2>Mirassol vs RB Bragantino: Form, Fitness and Value Bets</h2> <p>Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia hosts a compelling mid-week Serie A clash as surprise-package Mirassol welcome an out-of-sorts RB Bragantino. The numbers point firmly toward a home-leaning contest, but injuries on both sides add intrigue to the market.</p> <h3>Form Guide and Context</h3> <p>Mirassol enter in fourth place with 42 points and an imposing home profile: 7 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses, and 2.27 PPG at home. They’ve scored in all 11 home league matches and average 3.18 total goals per home game. Bragantino, 10th and sliding, are winless in four and have lost six straight away, managing only 1.08 PPG on the road this season. Over the last eight matches, their PPG has fallen to 0.63 with goals against up to 2.13 per game.</p> <h3>Injuries and Selection</h3> <p>Team news tilts the scales. Mirassol’s striker Francisco “Chico” Da Costa (6 goals) is doubtful with a thigh issue, while the hosts also miss Matheus Sales, Agustín Sant’Anna, Bruno Praxedes and Eduardo Santos. The silver lining is the outstanding contribution of Reinaldo (8 goals, 6 at home), a set-piece weapon. RB Bragantino’s attack is blunted with top scorer Isidro Pitta sidelined, and defensive balance hit by Juninho Capixaba’s knee injury. Expect Bragantino to lean on Eduardo Sasha, Jhon Jhon and Laquintana for shot creation.</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies</h3> <p>Mirassol’s full-backs, notably Lucas Ramon and Reinaldo, provide width and delivery, with an emphasis on late surges—Mirassol’s 61–75’ segment is their most prolific. The hosts are strong front-runners, scoring first in 73% of home games and converting those starts into 2.50 PPG. Bragantino’s away profile is concerning: they concede the first goal 58% of the time, average their first concession at 23 minutes, and collect only 0.14 PPG when falling behind. Without Pitta, transitions lose a focal point, putting more strain on midfield runners and late box entries from Sasha or Jhon Jhon.</p> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <ul> <li>Reinaldo vs Bragantino’s right: set-piece threat and late arriving runs; Capixaba’s injury removes a stabilizer on the opposite flank.</li> <li>Mirassol’s second-half push vs Bragantino’s late-game frailty: Mirassol’s 2nd-half GF share is 60% at home; Brag concede 9 in 76–90’ overall.</li> <li>State-based performance: Mirassol are robust both leading and chasing at home (equalizing rate 100%), while Bragantino struggle badly when behind away.</li> </ul> <h3>Market Outlook and Value</h3> <p>Bookmakers make Mirassol marginal favourites at 2.10 ML, but the safer and still value-rich angle is Draw No Bet at 1.50. The undefeated home record and Bragantino’s six consecutive away losses underpin that stance. The totals market also looks a touch soft: over 2.5 at 2.10 is supported by Mirassol’s 55% home over-2.5 and Bragantino’s 58% away over-2.5, plus the late-goal trend.</p> <p>BTTS at 1.83 is historically sound (Mir 73% home; Brag 67% away), though Pitta’s absence is a noteworthy headwind—stake accordingly. A sharper niche is Mirassol to score first at 1.77, dovetailing with their 73% “score first” at home versus Brag’s early concessions on the road.</p> <h3>Prop Watch</h3> <p>For a bigger price, Reinaldo anytime at 5.00 has merit. He’s Mirassol’s top scorer, delivers on set-pieces and penalties, and has six home goals. If Chico is indeed absent, Mirassol’s dead-ball pathways become more central—enhancing Reinaldo’s goal equity.</p> <h3>What Should Decide It</h3> <p>The single most predictive stat is state-based: Bragantino’s away PPG when conceding first is 0.14. Against a side that scores first in nearly three-quarters of home matches, the tactical and psychological edges align with Mirassol. Expect a game that accelerates after the break, with the hosts generating the better chances and Bragantino chasing.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Mirassol 2–1 RB Bragantino. Home DNB is the anchor, with over 2.5 and Mirassol to score first as complementary value plays.</p> </div>