Stuttgart II vs SV Wehen
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<html> <head><title>Stuttgart II vs Wehen Wiesbaden – Data-Led Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Stuttgart II vs SV Wehen Wiesbaden: Form, Data and Value</h2> <p>VfB Stuttgart II welcome SV Wehen Wiesbaden to the Gazi-Stadion on 30 September with both sides seeking stability. Updated sentiment places Stuttgart II down in 19th and Wehen in 14th, a contrast to early-table snapshots. The mood is tense around the hosts after a bruising 0-5 defeat at Energie Cottbus, while Wehen approach with cautious optimism, buoyed by two clean sheets in their past three league outings.</p> <h3>Venue Patterns and Tactical Tone</h3> <p>Stuttgart II’s home profile is open: 3.00 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in all four home fixtures so far. They tend to start fast in Stuttgart, averaging the first goal around the 24th minute, but they fade late—conceding heavily in second halves. Wehen’s away approach is measured: 1.00 goals for and 1.25 against, with a 50% away clean-sheet rate and a low overall trailing time (12%).</p> <p>Tactically, expect Stuttgart II to press early to re-energize the home crowd and to protect any lead they find—something they’ve done flawlessly at home (100% lead-defending). Wehen are excellent front-runners overall (scored first in 75% of matches), but their away lead retention sits at 50%, leaving room for a reply. The key battleground will be the second half: Stuttgart’s legs and structure have dropped late, just as Wehen thrive in the final quarter (76–90’ Wehen GF = 4).</p> <h3>Players and Pitch-Influencers</h3> <p>For Wehen, attacking contributions have been well spread: Nikolas Agrafiotis, Fatih Kaya, Lukas Schleimer and Moritz Flotho have all chipped in recently. That distribution supports their late-goal tendency and makes them less predictable. Stuttgart II are expected to be without Justin Diehl per local reporting, removing a dangerous outlet. The hosts’ recent home wins (2-1 vs Ingolstadt, 2-1 vs Viktoria Köln) confirm they can create, but defensive concentration remains a concern.</p> <h3>Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>First-goal premium: Stuttgart’s PPG when conceding first is just 0.25; Wehen have opened the scoring in 75% of their matches.</li> <li>Second-half bias: Wehen 62% of goals after halftime; Stuttgart absorb 64% of concessions in 2H.</li> <li>Draw trend: Wehen away draws at 50% so far, with time level away at 62%—they manage game states calmly.</li> <li>Contradiction to monitor: Stuttgart home BTTS 100% vs Wehen away clean sheets 50%—some regression is likely either way.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value Read</h3> <p>Markets lean slightly to Wehen (Away 2.38 vs Home 2.75), but the best angle is risk-managed support: Wehen Draw No Bet at 1.77. It leverages their strong first-goal trend and Stuttgart’s struggles when behind. The game script also suits late-action wagering: Second Half Over 1.5 (1.85) and Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (1.93) look sensible given Wehen’s closing strength and Stuttgart’s late concessions. BTTS Yes at 1.50 is short, but Stuttgart’s 100% home BTTS rate supports inclusion in multis.</p> <p>For bigger price hunters, the Draw at 3.55 is live: Wehen’s away stalemate rate (50%) and their preference for long level spells combine with Stuttgart’s inconsistency. A speculative correct score of 1-1 at 6.25 aligns with the BTTS and draw angles and with Stuttgart’s 25% frequency for 1-1 at home.</p> <h3>Context and Conditions</h3> <p>Both clubs have three to four days’ rest. The weather looks ideal (13–16°C, light wind). Wehen’s squad stability contrasts with Stuttgart II’s pressure and youth integration—factors that typically favor the side with better game management away from home.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Expect a cagey opening to give way to a livelier second half. Wehen’s discipline and front-runner profile point to a result on their side if they strike first, while a draw remains a serious runner given their away trend. Recommended: Wehen DNB, BTTS Yes, and 2H Over 1.5. Correct score lean: 1-1.</p> </body> </html>
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