SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Wehen
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head><title>Ulm vs Wehen Wiesbaden: Data-Led 3. Liga Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Form and Context</h2> <p>Ulm welcome Wehen Wiesbaden to the Donaustadion in a mid-season fixture with contrasting trajectories. Ulm sit 18th with 16 points (5-1-13), mired in a prolonged slump and leaking goals at an alarming 2.32 per game. Wehen, 11th with 28 points (8-4-7), have been steadier, conceding just 1.21 per match across the campaign and trending around 1.50 points per game over the last eight.</p> <p>Recent friendlies didn’t shift perception: Ulm lost 2-4 to Magdeburg, Wehen narrowly fell 1-2 to Darmstadt. No fresh injuries or coaching changes have been flagged, and the expectation is that main threats are available—Elias Löder for Ulm and Nikolas Agrafiotis for Wehen.</p> <h2>Venue Dynamics</h2> <p>Ulm’s home data paints the picture: 1.0 points per game, 1.56 scored and 2.22 conceded; over 2.5 goals in 78% of home matches. Their opponent scored first in 67% of those games and Ulm’s average minute conceded first at home is only 15. That early vulnerability has fueled a five-match home losing streak.</p> <p>Wehen’s away profile is compact and professional: 1.2 points per game with just 1.2 conceded and an elite 50% clean-sheet rate on the road. Importantly, when they lead away, they protect it 75% of the time—a significant edge in 3. Liga game-state management.</p> <h2>Tactical Matchup</h2> <p>Expect Ulm to try to front-foot early to break their home funk, but their transitional defense is brittle when the first press is bypassed. Wehen are comfortable absorbing pressure and striking later—68% of their goals arrive after half-time, with a pronounced kick in the final quarter-hour (nine goals 76–90’). Set pieces also tilt to Wehen, with Justin Janitzek and Niklas May giving them aerial presence and restart delivery.</p> <p>If Wehen get ahead, Ulm’s numbers when conceding first are grim (0.29 points per game overall; 0.5 at home), whereas Wehen’s away equalizing rate is 0%—they don’t chase well, so the first goal is pivotal. That tilts angles toward away DNB and “win either half.”</p> <h2>Key Players</h2> <p>For Ulm, Löder’s movement between lines is crucial to disrupt Wehen’s center-backs. Max Brandt and Dennis Dressel must impose control without the rash fouling that has cost Ulm in transitions. For Wehen, Agrafiotis’ hold-up and Fatih Kaya’s channel runs threaten a stretched back line; in midfield, Ryan Johansson and Lukas Schleimer can carry the ball and draw fouls to set up dead-ball situations. Behind them, goalkeeper Florian Stritzel and the Janitzek–May partnership have underpinned seven clean sheets this season, including five away.</p> <h2>Odds and Value</h2> <p>Books rate this near a coin flip on the 1x2 (Ulm 2.50, Draw 3.50, Wehen 2.62), but the underlying data favors Wehen with protection. The standout is Draw No Bet on Wehen at 1.95—marrying Ulm’s collapse in the last eight with Wehen’s lead-defense and away clean-sheet profile. Given Ulm’s high-event home matches (3.78 total goals on average), Over 2.5 at 1.67 remains a reasonable addition, though tempered by Wehen’s low-event away trend (2.0). A smart pairing is Wehen to win either half at 1.80, leveraging Ulm’s 52% time-trailing figure and Wehen’s late-scoring habit.</p> <p>For price hunters, the away clean sheet at 3.75 is a contrarian nibble backed by Wehen’s 50% away CS rate versus Ulm’s 22% home FTS. If the game-state skews toward Wehen control, a 1-2 away correct score (8.00) fits both the late away scoring and Ulm’s propensity to find one goal amid defensive concessions.</p> <h2>Weather and Game Rhythm</h2> <p>Cold January conditions in Ulm (typical 0–5°C) should favor the more structured side. A tighter first half with Wehen’s compact lines, then more space and chances after the interval, is the expected rhythm—aligning with “Highest scoring half: 2nd” at 1.95.</p> <h2>Prediction</h2> <p>Wehen’s defensive stability and superior game-state metrics make them the right side. With draw cover, they’re a value-backed selection, and the game should tilt toward goals after the break. The Oracle’s lean: Wehen DNB and Over 2.5 as the main staking plan; sprinkle Wehen to win a half and a small dart on 1-2.</p> </body> </html>
Betting Odds
Odds are currently unavailable.
Odds are provided for informational purposes. Please gamble responsibly.
AI Analysis & Predictions
Get comprehensive AI-powered analysis for this match with our advanced prediction models. Our AI considers team form, head-to-head records, player statistics, and real-time data to provide accurate insights.
- Real-time match predictions
- In-depth statistical analysis
- Live odds monitoring
- Expert betting insights